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Macro Regime — 2015-W14

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Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2015-04); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: deflation watch
China: stall-speed, at target
Euro area: deflation watch
Japan: stall-speed, at target

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2015-04	2015-03	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.25 2015-04-01	0.24 2015-03-01	→ 0.01
Core PCE	% YoY	1.29 2015-04-01	1.28 2015-03-01	→ 0.01
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.1 2015-04-01	-0.02 2015-03-01	→ -0.08
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	2.5 2015-04-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	51.5 2015-04-01	52.9 2015-03-02	▼ -1.4
PMI (svc)	index	56.5 2015-04-06	56.9 2015-03-04	▼ -0.4
Policy rate	%	0.25 2015-04-30	0.25 2015-03-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	1.47 2015-04-30	1.38 2015-03-31	▲ 0.09
Unemployment	%	5.4 2015-04-01	5.4 2015-03-01	→ 0
10Y yield	%	2.05 2015-04-30	1.94 2015-03-31	▲ 0.11
2Y yield	%	0.58 2015-04-30	0.56 2015-03-31	→ 0.02

China

Indicator	Basis	2015-04	2015-03	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.4 2015-04-10	1.4 2015-03-10	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	7 2015-04-15	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	50.1 2015-04-01	50.1 2015-03-01	→ 0
PMI (svc)	index	53.7 2015-04-01	53.9 2015-03-01	→ -0.2
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	5.3 2015-04-30	5.3 2015-03-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.4 2015-04-30	0.38 2015-03-31	→ 0.02
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.35 2015-04-30	3.65 2015-03-31	▼ -0.3
2Y yield	%	2.95 2015-04-30	3.27 2015-03-31	▼ -0.32

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2015-04	2015-03	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	0 2015-04-30	-0.1 2015-03-31	→ 0.1
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	1.1 2015-04-17	0.6 2015-03-17	▲ 0.5
PMI (mfg)	index	51.9 2015-04-23	51.9 2015-03-24	→ 0
PMI (svc)	index	53.7 2015-04-23	54.3 2015-03-24	▼ -0.6
Policy rate	%	0.05 2015-04-15	0.05 2015-03-05	→ 0
Unemployment	%	11.3 2015-04-30	11.3 2015-03-31	→ 0
10Y yield	%	0.85 2015-04-01	0.95 2015-03-01	▼ -0.1

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2015-04	2015-03	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	2.1 2015-04-25	2 2015-03-28	→ 0.1
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.3 2015-04-25	2.2 2015-03-28	→ 0.1
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	4.77 2015-04-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2015-04-30	0.1 2015-03-17	→ 0
Unemployment	%	3.4 2015-04-29	3.6 2015-03-01	▼ -0.2
10Y yield	%	0.34 2015-04-01	0.4 2015-03-01	▼ -0.06

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

deflation watch

stall · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

China

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation

expansion · deflation risk · on hold

Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.

● 1 active

Japan

stall-speed, at target

unknown · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 51.9 → 52.2 (+0.3)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.10	0.00	-0.10 ▬	2015-04-01
Core CPI	0.25	0.20	+0.05 ▬	2015-04-01
Core PCE	1.29	1.40	-0.11 ▼	2015-04-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2015-04-05
GDP	2.50	2.20	+0.30 ▲	2015-04-01
PMI (mfg)	51.50	52.90	-1.40 ▼	2015-04-01
PMI (svc)	56.90	56.70	+0.20 ▬	2015-03-04
Unemployment	5.50	5.40	+0.10 ▬	2015-04-03
10Y yield	1.85	1.92	-0.07 ▼	2015-04-03
2Y yield	0.49	0.55	-0.06 ▼	2015-04-03
2s10s slope	1.36	1.37	-0.01 ▬	2015-04-03
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.40	0.80	+0.60 ▲	2015-03-10
Policy rate	5.30	5.30	+0.00 ▬	2015-04-03
GDP	7.30	7.30	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-20
PMI (mfg)	50.10	50.10	+0.00 ▬	2015-04-01
PMI (svc)	53.70	53.90	-0.20 ▬	2015-04-01
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.57	3.54	+0.03 ▬	2015-04-03
2Y yield	3.22	3.22	+0.00 ▬	2015-04-03
2s10s slope	0.35	0.33	+0.03 ▬	2015-04-03
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.10	-0.30	+0.20 ▲	2015-03-31
Policy rate	0.05	0.05	+0.00 ▬	2015-03-05
GDP	0.60	-1.60	+2.20 ▲	2015-03-17
PMI (mfg)	52.20	51.90	+0.30 ▲	2015-04-01
PMI (svc)	54.30	53.70	+0.60 ▲	2015-03-24
Unemployment	11.30	11.20	+0.10 ▲	2015-03-31
10Y yield	0.85	0.95	-0.10 ▼	2015-04-01
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.20	2.40	-0.20 ▼	2015-03-28
Core CPI	2.00	2.10	-0.10 ▼	2015-03-28
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2015-03-17
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	3.50	3.60	-0.10 ▼	2015-04-01
10Y yield	0.34	0.40	-0.06 ▼	2015-04-01
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.