Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-11daily glanceweekly archive →2015-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2014-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
W51: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W52: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.05 → 0.10 +0.05 (2014-12-01 → 2014-12-17)
  • core_pce: 1.36 → 1.40 +0.04 (2014-12-01 → 2014-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.65 → 1.30 +0.65 (2014-12-01 → 2014-12-15)
  • gdp: 3.90 → 5.00 +1.10 (2014-11-25 → 2014-12-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-12-07 → 2014-12-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.66 → 1.52 -0.14 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.31 → 2.25 -0.06 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.65 → 0.73 +0.08 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.40 -0.20 (2014-11-10 → 2014-12-10)
  • policy_rate: 5.51 → 5.51 0.00 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.27 -0.22 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.78 → 3.63 -0.14 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.29 → 3.37 +0.08 (2014-12-05 → 2014-12-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2014-11-28 → 2014-12-17)
  • gdp: 0.00 → -0.20 -0.20 (2014-11-14 → 2014-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 50.80 +0.70 (2014-12-01 → 2014-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 51.10 → 51.90 +0.80 (2014-12-03 → 2014-12-16)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.20 → 2.10 -0.10 (2014-11-25 → 2014-12-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.40 -0.50 (2014-11-25 → 2014-12-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-11-19 → 2014-12-19)

Busiest week: 2014-W49 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W50 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-12 vs 2014-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W49

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W50

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W51

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W52

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change