Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2014-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2014-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-Q3 vs 2014-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W31: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M3 ×4 policy_easing

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.00 -0.15 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-17)
core_pce: 1.61 → 1.55 -0.06 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.97 → 1.70 -0.27 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-14)
gdp: 5.00 → 4.60 -0.40 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-26)
pmi_mfg: 55.30 → 59.00 +3.70 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-02)
pmi_svc: 56.00 → 59.60 +3.60 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-04)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-07-06 → 2014-09-28)
slope_2s10s: 2.13 → 1.95 -0.18 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-26)
unemployment: 6.10 → 6.10 0.00 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-05)
yield_10y: 2.65 → 2.54 -0.11 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-26)
yield_2y: 0.52 → 0.59 +0.07 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-26)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.00 -0.50 (2014-06-10 → 2014-09-11)
gdp: 7.40 → 7.50 +0.10 (2014-04-16 → 2014-07-16)
pmi_mfg: 51.70 → 51.10 -0.60 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.40 -0.60 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-03)
policy_rate: 5.76 → 5.76 0.00 (2014-07-04 → 2014-09-28)
slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.19 -0.30 (2014-07-04 → 2014-09-28)
yield_10y: 4.17 → 4.02 -0.15 (2014-07-04 → 2014-09-28)
yield_2y: 3.68 → 3.83 +0.15 (2014-07-04 → 2014-09-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2014-06-30 → 2014-09-17)
gdp: -0.10 → 0.10 +0.20 (2014-06-16 → 2014-09-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.80 → 50.50 -1.30 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-23)
pmi_svc: 52.80 → 52.80 0.00 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-23)
policy_rate: 0.15 → 0.05 -0.10 (2014-07-03 → 2014-09-04)
unemployment: 11.60 → 11.50 -0.10 (2014-07-01 → 2014-08-29)
yield_10y: 2.16 → 1.85 -0.31 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.20 → 2.30 +0.10 (2014-06-25 → 2014-09-25)
cpi_yoy: 3.70 → 3.30 -0.40 (2014-06-25 → 2014-09-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-06-13 → 2014-09-04)
unemployment: 3.60 → 3.70 +0.10 (2014-06-29 → 2014-08-29)
yield_10y: 0.53 → 0.50 -0.03 (2014-07-01 → 2014-09-01)

Busiest week: 2014-W36 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2014-W27 (1 active)

Synthesis

(synthesis pending — runs for the current period)

Decompose