Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-06daily glanceweekly archive →2014-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2014-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.10 -0.05 (2014-07-01 → 2014-07-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.97 → 2.10 +0.13 (2014-07-01 → 2014-07-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-07-06 → 2014-07-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.13 → 1.95 -0.18 (2014-07-03 → 2014-07-25)
  • yield_10y: 2.65 → 2.48 -0.17 (2014-07-03 → 2014-07-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.52 → 0.53 +0.01 (2014-07-03 → 2014-07-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.30 -0.20 (2014-06-10 → 2014-07-09)
  • gdp: 7.40 → 7.50 +0.10 (2014-04-16 → 2014-07-16)
  • policy_rate: 5.76 → 5.76 0.00 (2014-07-04 → 2014-07-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.40 -0.09 (2014-07-04 → 2014-07-25)
  • yield_10y: 4.17 → 4.27 +0.10 (2014-07-04 → 2014-07-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.68 → 3.87 +0.19 (2014-07-04 → 2014-07-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2014-06-30 → 2014-07-17)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.10 +0.20 (2014-06-16 → 2014-07-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.80 → 51.90 +0.10 (2014-07-01 → 2014-07-24)
  • pmi_svc: 52.80 → 54.40 +1.60 (2014-07-03 → 2014-07-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.20 → 2.30 +0.10 (2014-06-25 → 2014-07-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.70 → 3.60 -0.10 (2014-06-25 → 2014-07-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-06-13 → 2014-07-15)

Busiest week: 2014-W27 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W27 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-07 vs 2014-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W27

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W28

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W29

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W30

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change