Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-07daily glanceweekly archive →2014-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2014-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.10 +0.01 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-19)
  • core_pce: 1.54 → 1.50 -0.04 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.72 → 2.00 +0.28 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-14)
  • gdp: 4.00 → 4.20 +0.20 (2014-07-30 → 2014-08-28)
  • pmi_svc: 56.00 → 58.70 +2.70 (2014-07-03 → 2014-08-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-08-03 → 2014-08-31)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.05 → 1.87 -0.18 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
  • yield_10y: 2.52 → 2.35 -0.17 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
  • yield_2y: 0.47 → 0.48 +0.01 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.30 0.00 (2014-07-09 → 2014-08-09)
  • policy_rate: 5.76 → 5.76 0.00 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.39 → 0.33 -0.06 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
  • yield_10y: 4.26 → 4.24 -0.02 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
  • yield_2y: 3.86 → 3.90 +0.04 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.30 -0.10 (2014-07-31 → 2014-08-29)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.70 -0.80 (2014-07-17 → 2014-08-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.80 → 50.80 -1.00 (2014-08-01 → 2014-08-21)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 53.50 -0.90 (2014-07-24 → 2014-08-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.15 → 0.15 0.00 (2014-07-03 → 2014-08-07)
  • unemployment: 11.50 → 11.50 0.00 (2014-07-31 → 2014-08-29)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.30 → 2.30 0.00 (2014-07-26 → 2014-08-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.60 → 3.40 -0.20 (2014-07-26 → 2014-08-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-07-15 → 2014-08-08)
  • unemployment: 3.70 → 3.70 0.00 (2014-07-30 → 2014-08-29)

Busiest week: 2014-W31 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W31 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-08 vs 2014-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W32

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W33

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W34

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W35

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change