Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2014-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2014-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-H2 vs 2014-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W31: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Japan

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W52: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

Euro area

M3 ×4 policy_easing
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.10 -0.05 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-17)
core_pce: 1.61 → 1.40 -0.21 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 1.97 → 1.30 -0.67 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-15)
gdp: 5.00 → 5.00 0.00 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-23)
pmi_mfg: 55.30 → 58.70 +3.40 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-01)
pmi_svc: 56.00 → 59.30 +3.30 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-07-06 → 2014-12-28)
slope_2s10s: 2.13 → 1.52 -0.61 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-26)
unemployment: 6.10 → 5.80 -0.30 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-05)
yield_10y: 2.65 → 2.25 -0.40 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-26)
yield_2y: 0.52 → 0.73 +0.21 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-26)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 1.40 -1.10 (2014-06-10 → 2014-12-10)
gdp: 7.40 → 7.30 -0.10 (2014-04-16 → 2014-10-21)
pmi_mfg: 51.70 → 50.10 -1.60 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 53.90 -1.10 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-03)
policy_rate: 5.76 → 5.51 -0.25 (2014-07-04 → 2014-12-26)
slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.27 -0.23 (2014-07-04 → 2014-12-26)
yield_10y: 4.17 → 3.63 -0.54 (2014-07-04 → 2014-12-26)
yield_2y: 3.68 → 3.37 -0.31 (2014-07-04 → 2014-12-26)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.30 -0.20 (2014-06-30 → 2014-12-17)
gdp: -0.10 → -0.20 -0.10 (2014-06-16 → 2014-12-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.80 → 50.80 -1.00 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-16)
pmi_svc: 52.80 → 51.90 -0.90 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.15 → 0.05 -0.10 (2014-07-03 → 2014-12-04)
unemployment: 11.60 → 11.50 -0.10 (2014-07-01 → 2014-11-28)
yield_10y: 2.16 → 1.45 -0.71 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.20 → 2.10 -0.10 (2014-06-25 → 2014-12-26)
cpi_yoy: 3.70 → 2.40 -1.30 (2014-06-25 → 2014-12-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-06-13 → 2014-12-19)
unemployment: 3.60 → 3.50 -0.10 (2014-06-29 → 2014-11-29)
yield_10y: 0.53 → 0.33 -0.20 (2014-07-01 → 2014-12-01)

Busiest week: 2014-W36 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2014-W40 (0 active)

Synthesis

(synthesis pending — runs for the current period)

Decompose