Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2014-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2014-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-H1 vs 2013-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W02: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall

W26: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall

Japan

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W22: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×17 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M3 ×4 policy_easing
M5 ×2 growth_acceleration

Japan

M1 ×7 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.30 +0.21 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-17)
core_pce: 1.45 → 1.56 +0.11 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.56 → 2.10 +0.54 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-14)
gdp: -1.40 → -2.90 -1.50 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-25)
pmi_mfg: 57.00 → 55.40 -1.60 (2014-01-02 → 2014-06-02)
pmi_svc: 53.90 → 56.30 +2.40 (2013-12-04 → 2014-06-04)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-01-05 → 2014-06-29)
slope_2s10s: 2.60 → 2.09 -0.51 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)
unemployment: 6.60 → 6.30 -0.30 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-06)
yield_10y: 3.01 → 2.54 -0.47 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)
yield_2y: 0.41 → 0.45 +0.04 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.50 -0.50 (2013-12-09 → 2014-06-10)
gdp: 7.80 → 7.40 -0.40 (2013-10-18 → 2014-04-16)
pmi_mfg: 50.50 → 51.00 +0.50 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.60 → 55.50 +0.90 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-03)
policy_rate: 5.73 → 5.76 +0.03 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)
slope_2s10s: 0.26 → 0.45 +0.19 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)
yield_10y: 4.64 → 4.05 -0.59 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)
yield_2y: 4.38 → 3.59 -0.78 (2014-01-03 → 2014-06-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.50 -0.40 (2013-12-17 → 2014-06-16)
gdp: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2013-12-17 → 2014-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 51.90 -0.80 (2014-01-02 → 2014-06-23)
pmi_svc: 51.00 → 52.80 +1.80 (2013-12-16 → 2014-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.15 -0.10 (2013-12-05 → 2014-06-05)
unemployment: 12.10 → 11.70 -0.40 (2013-11-29 → 2014-06-03)
yield_10y: 3.21 → 2.28 -0.94 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.60 → 2.20 +1.60 (2013-12-26 → 2014-06-25)
cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 3.70 +2.20 (2013-12-26 → 2014-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-12-20 → 2014-06-13)
unemployment: 3.90 → 3.60 -0.30 (2013-12-30 → 2014-06-29)
yield_10y: 0.61 → 0.54 -0.08 (2014-01-01 → 2014-06-01)

Busiest week: 2014-W23 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2014-W06 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose