Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2014-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2014-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-Q2 vs 2014-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall

W26: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall

Japan

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W22: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M3 ×4 policy_easing

Japan

M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.30 +0.11 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-17)
core_pce: 1.57 → 1.56 -0.01 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.02 → 2.10 +0.08 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-14)
gdp: 5.30 → -2.90 -8.20 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-25)
pmi_mfg: 53.70 → 55.40 +1.70 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-02)
pmi_svc: 53.10 → 56.30 +3.20 (2014-04-03 → 2014-06-04)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-04-06 → 2014-06-29)
slope_2s10s: 2.31 → 2.09 -0.22 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)
unemployment: 6.70 → 6.30 -0.40 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-06)
yield_10y: 2.74 → 2.54 -0.20 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)
yield_2y: 0.43 → 0.45 +0.02 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.50 +0.50 (2014-03-09 → 2014-06-10)
gdp: 7.70 → 7.40 -0.30 (2014-01-20 → 2014-04-16)
pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 51.00 +0.60 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.50 → 55.50 +1.00 (2014-04-03 → 2014-06-03)
policy_rate: 5.77 → 5.76 -0.01 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)
slope_2s10s: 1.04 → 0.45 -0.58 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)
yield_10y: 4.49 → 4.05 -0.44 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)
yield_2y: 3.45 → 3.59 +0.14 (2014-04-04 → 2014-06-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2014-03-31 → 2014-06-16)
gdp: 0.30 → -0.10 -0.40 (2014-03-17 → 2014-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 53.00 → 51.90 -1.10 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-23)
pmi_svc: 52.20 → 52.80 +0.60 (2014-04-03 → 2014-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.15 -0.10 (2014-04-03 → 2014-06-05)
unemployment: 11.90 → 11.70 -0.20 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-03)
yield_10y: 2.61 → 2.28 -0.33 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.80 → 2.20 +1.40 (2014-03-28 → 2014-06-25)
cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 3.70 +2.20 (2014-03-28 → 2014-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-03-11 → 2014-06-13)
unemployment: 3.60 → 3.60 0.00 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-29)
yield_10y: 0.61 → 0.54 -0.07 (2014-04-01 → 2014-06-01)

Busiest week: 2014-W23 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2014-W14 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose