Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-10daily glanceweekly archive →2014-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2014-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
W46: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.11 → 0.20 +0.09 (2014-11-01 → 2014-11-20)
  • core_pce: 1.39 → 1.60 +0.21 (2014-11-01 → 2014-11-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.23 → 1.70 +0.47 (2014-11-01 → 2014-11-14)
  • gdp: 3.50 → 3.90 +0.40 (2014-10-30 → 2014-11-25)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 59.00 +2.40 (2014-10-01 → 2014-11-03)
  • pmi_svc: 58.60 → 57.10 -1.50 (2014-10-03 → 2014-11-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-11-02 → 2014-11-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.85 → 1.71 -0.14 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
  • unemployment: 5.80 → 5.80 0.00 (2014-11-01 → 2014-11-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.35 → 2.18 -0.17 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.50 → 0.47 -0.03 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2014-10-15 → 2014-11-10)
  • pmi_svc: 54.00 → 53.80 -0.20 (2014-10-03 → 2014-11-03)
  • policy_rate: 5.76 → 5.51 -0.25 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.36 → 0.36 +0.00 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.76 → 3.52 -0.23 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
  • yield_2y: 3.40 → 3.16 -0.23 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.30 -0.10 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
  • gdp: 0.40 → 0.00 -0.40 (2014-10-16 → 2014-11-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.70 → 50.40 -0.30 (2014-10-23 → 2014-11-20)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 51.30 -1.10 (2014-10-23 → 2014-11-20)
  • policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2014-10-02 → 2014-11-06)
  • unemployment: 11.50 → 11.50 0.00 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-28)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.30 → 2.20 -0.10 (2014-10-26 → 2014-11-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 2.90 -0.30 (2014-10-26 → 2014-11-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-10-31 → 2014-11-19)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 3.50 -0.10 (2014-10-30 → 2014-11-29)

Busiest week: 2014-W44 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2014-W44 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-11 vs 2014-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W44

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W45

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W46

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W47

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2014-W48

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change