Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-10daily glanceweekly archive →2013-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
Euro area
  • M3 ×3 policy_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.10 -0.09 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.23 → 1.00 -0.23 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-14)
  • gdp: 3.50 → 2.80 -0.70 (2013-10-01 → 2013-11-07)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 55.40 +1.00 (2013-10-03 → 2013-11-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-11-03 → 2013-11-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.32 → 2.44 +0.12 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
  • unemployment: 6.90 → 7.30 +0.40 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-08)
  • yield_10y: 2.65 → 2.75 +0.10 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
  • yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.31 -0.02 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 3.10 → 3.20 +0.10 (2013-10-14 → 2013-11-09)
  • policy_rate: 5.72 → 5.73 +0.01 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.20 → 0.35 +0.15 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
  • yield_10y: 4.16 → 4.65 +0.50 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
  • yield_2y: 3.96 → 4.31 +0.35 (2013-11-01 → 2013-11-22)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.70 0.00 (2013-10-31 → 2013-11-15)
  • gdp: 0.50 → -0.10 -0.60 (2013-10-16 → 2013-11-15)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.50 +0.20 (2013-10-24 → 2013-11-21)
  • pmi_svc: 50.90 → 50.90 0.00 (2013-10-24 → 2013-11-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.25 -0.25 (2013-10-02 → 2013-11-07)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-10-31 → 2013-11-21)

Busiest week: 2013-W45 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W44 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-11 vs 2013-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W44

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2013-W45

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2013-W46

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2013-W47

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change