Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-09daily glanceweekly archive →2013-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W42: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • cpi_yoy: 0.88 → 1.20 +0.32 (2013-10-01 → 2013-10-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-10-06 → 2013-10-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.21 -0.12 (2013-10-04 → 2013-10-25)
  • unemployment: 7.20 → 7.20 0.00 (2013-10-01 → 2013-10-22)
  • yield_10y: 2.66 → 2.53 -0.13 (2013-10-04 → 2013-10-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.32 -0.01 (2013-10-04 → 2013-10-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 3.10 +0.50 (2013-09-09 → 2013-10-14)
  • gdp: 7.50 → 7.80 +0.30 (2013-07-15 → 2013-10-18)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.22 → 0.39 +0.17 (2013-09-30 → 2013-10-25)
  • yield_10y: 4.00 → 4.21 +0.22 (2013-09-30 → 2013-10-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.77 → 3.83 +0.05 (2013-09-30 → 2013-10-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 1.10 0.00 (2013-09-30 → 2013-10-16)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.50 +0.40 (2013-09-16 → 2013-10-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 51.30 +0.20 (2013-10-01 → 2013-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 52.20 → 50.90 -1.30 (2013-10-03 → 2013-10-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.10 → 0.00 +0.10 (2013-09-25 → 2013-10-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.10 +0.20 (2013-09-25 → 2013-10-26)

Busiest week: 2013-W40 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2013-W40 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-10 vs 2013-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2013-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2013-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2013-W43

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change