Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-06daily glanceweekly archive →2013-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W28: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.20 -0.03 (2013-07-01 → 2013-07-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.89 → 1.80 -0.09 (2013-07-01 → 2013-07-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-07-07 → 2013-07-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.27 -0.06 (2013-07-05 → 2013-07-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.73 → 2.58 -0.15 (2013-07-05 → 2013-07-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.40 → 0.31 -0.09 (2013-07-05 → 2013-07-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.70 +0.60 (2013-06-09 → 2013-07-09)
  • gdp: 7.70 → 7.50 -0.20 (2013-04-15 → 2013-07-15)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.37 → 0.17 -0.19 (2013-07-05 → 2013-07-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.51 → 3.72 +0.20 (2013-07-05 → 2013-07-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.15 → 3.54 +0.40 (2013-07-05 → 2013-07-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2013-07-01 → 2013-07-16)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-06-14 → 2013-07-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 48.80 → 50.10 +1.30 (2013-07-01 → 2013-07-24)
  • pmi_svc: 48.30 → 49.60 +1.30 (2013-07-03 → 2013-07-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -0.20 +0.20 (2013-06-25 → 2013-07-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → 0.20 +0.50 (2013-06-25 → 2013-07-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-06-11 → 2013-07-11)

Busiest week: 2013-W27 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W28 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-07 vs 2013-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W27

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W28

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W29

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W30

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active