Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-07daily glanceweekly archive →2013-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W34: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.20 +0.01 (2013-08-01 → 2013-08-15)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.54 → 2.00 +0.46 (2013-08-01 → 2013-08-14)
  • pmi_svc: 52.20 → 56.00 +3.80 (2013-07-03 → 2013-08-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-08-04 → 2013-08-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.42 +0.09 (2013-08-02 → 2013-08-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.63 → 2.82 +0.19 (2013-08-02 → 2013-08-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2013-08-02 → 2013-08-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.70 0.00 (2013-07-09 → 2013-08-09)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.23 → 0.20 -0.03 (2013-08-02 → 2013-08-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.70 → 3.99 +0.29 (2013-08-02 → 2013-08-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.47 → 3.79 +0.31 (2013-08-02 → 2013-08-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2013-07-31 → 2013-08-16)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.50 -0.60 (2013-07-16 → 2013-08-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.30 → 51.30 +1.00 (2013-08-01 → 2013-08-22)
  • pmi_svc: 49.60 → 51.00 +1.40 (2013-07-24 → 2013-08-22)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.20 → -0.10 +0.10 (2013-07-26 → 2013-08-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.70 +0.50 (2013-07-26 → 2013-08-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-07-11 → 2013-08-08)

Busiest week: 2013-W31 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W31 (3 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-08 vs 2013-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W31

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W32

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W33

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W34

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change