Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-01daily glanceweekly archive →2013-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M13 ×3 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.30 +0.15 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.02 → 1.60 -0.42 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-14)
  • pmi_svc: 56.10 → 55.20 -0.90 (2013-01-04 → 2013-02-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-02-03 → 2013-02-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.77 → 1.70 -0.07 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-22)
  • yield_10y: 2.04 → 1.97 -0.07 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-22)
  • yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.27 0.00 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-22)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.00 -0.50 (2013-01-11 → 2013-02-08)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.55 → 0.55 +0.00 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-22)
  • yield_10y: 3.60 → 3.57 -0.03 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-22)
  • yield_2y: 3.05 → 3.02 -0.03 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-22)
Euro area
  • pmi_mfg: 47.90 → 47.80 -0.10 (2013-02-01 → 2013-02-21)
  • pmi_svc: 48.30 → 47.30 -1.00 (2013-01-24 → 2013-02-21)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.75 0.00 (2013-01-10 → 2013-02-07)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-01-22 → 2013-02-14)

Busiest week: 2013-W05 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W08 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-02 vs 2013-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W05

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2013-W06

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2013-W07

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2013-W08

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change