Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2012-12daily glanceweekly archive →2013-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.10 -0.12 (2013-01-01 → 2013-01-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.68 → 1.70 +0.02 (2013-01-01 → 2013-01-14)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-01-06 → 2013-01-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.66 → 1.70 +0.04 (2013-01-04 → 2013-01-25)
  • yield_10y: 1.93 → 1.98 +0.05 (2013-01-04 → 2013-01-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.28 +0.01 (2013-01-04 → 2013-01-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.50 +0.50 (2012-12-09 → 2013-01-11)
  • gdp: 7.40 → 7.90 +0.50 (2012-10-18 → 2013-01-18)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.56 +0.00 (2013-01-06 → 2013-01-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.60 → 3.58 -0.01 (2013-01-06 → 2013-01-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.04 → 3.03 -0.01 (2013-01-06 → 2013-01-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2013-01-04 → 2013-01-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 47.50 +1.40 (2013-01-02 → 2013-01-24)
  • pmi_svc: 47.80 → 48.30 +0.50 (2013-01-04 → 2013-01-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.75 0.00 (2012-12-06 → 2013-01-10)
  • unemployment: 11.70 → 11.80 +0.10 (2012-11-30 → 2013-01-08)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.60 -0.10 (2012-12-26 → 2013-01-25)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.20 → -0.10 +0.10 (2012-12-26 → 2013-01-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-12-20 → 2013-01-22)

Busiest week: 2013-W04 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W01 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-01 vs 2012-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W01

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2013-W02

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2013-W03

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2013-W04

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change