Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2013-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2013-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-H2 vs 2013-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target → goldilocks / reflation

W31: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W35: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W37: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W40: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W48: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W50: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

China

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W28: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W37: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W42: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Euro area

stall-speed, at target → goldilocks / reflation

W40: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W51: disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

deflation watch → stall-speed, at target

W34: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W52: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×21 growth_acceleration
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

Euro area

M9 ×10 yield_spike
M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M3 ×4 policy_easing

Japan

M1 ×12 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.20 -0.03 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-17)
core_pce: 1.49 → 1.55 +0.06 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.89 → 1.20 -0.69 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-15)
gdp: 3.50 → 4.10 +0.60 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-20)
pmi_mfg: 50.90 → 57.30 +6.40 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-02)
pmi_svc: 52.20 → 53.90 +1.70 (2013-07-03 → 2013-12-04)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-07-07 → 2013-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.62 +0.29 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-27)
unemployment: 7.60 → 7.00 -0.60 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-06)
yield_10y: 2.73 → 3.02 +0.29 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-27)
yield_2y: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 3.00 +0.90 (2013-06-09 → 2013-12-09)
gdp: 7.70 → 7.80 +0.10 (2013-04-15 → 2013-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 50.30 → 51.00 +0.70 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.90 → 56.00 +2.10 (2013-07-03 → 2013-12-03)
policy_rate: 5.71 → 5.73 +0.02 (2013-10-25 → 2013-12-27)
slope_2s10s: 0.37 → 0.18 -0.19 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-27)
yield_10y: 3.51 → 4.54 +1.03 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-27)
yield_2y: 3.15 → 4.36 +1.22 (2013-07-05 → 2013-12-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 0.90 -0.70 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-17)
gdp: 0.10 → -0.10 -0.20 (2013-06-14 → 2013-12-17)
pmi_mfg: 48.80 → 52.70 +3.90 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-16)
pmi_svc: 48.30 → 51.00 +2.70 (2013-07-03 → 2013-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.25 -0.25 (2013-07-04 → 2013-12-05)
unemployment: 12.10 → 12.10 0.00 (2013-07-01 → 2013-11-29)
yield_10y: 3.10 → 3.31 +0.21 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.40 → 0.60 +1.00 (2013-06-25 → 2013-12-26)
cpi_yoy: -0.30 → 1.50 +1.80 (2013-06-25 → 2013-12-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-06-11 → 2013-12-20)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.00 -0.10 (2013-06-29 → 2013-11-29)
yield_10y: 0.79 → 0.69 -0.10 (2013-07-01 → 2013-12-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W51 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W44 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose