Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2013-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2013-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-H1 vs 2012-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×3 yield_spike
M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

China

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×18 yield_spike
M13 ×10 contraction_easing
M3 ×5 policy_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M1 ×6 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-18)
core_pce: 1.59 → 1.46 -0.13 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.68 → 1.40 -0.28 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-14)
gdp: 4.00 → 1.80 -2.20 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-26)
pmi_mfg: 50.70 → 49.00 -1.70 (2013-01-02 → 2013-06-03)
pmi_svc: 56.10 → 53.70 -2.40 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-01-06 → 2013-06-30)
slope_2s10s: 1.66 → 2.16 +0.50 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-28)
unemployment: 7.80 → 7.60 -0.20 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-07)
yield_10y: 1.93 → 2.52 +0.59 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-28)
yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.36 +0.09 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2012-12-09 → 2013-06-09)
gdp: 7.40 → 7.70 +0.30 (2012-10-18 → 2013-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 50.10 -0.30 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-01)
pmi_svc: 56.10 → 54.30 -1.80 (2013-01-03 → 2013-06-03)
slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.29 -0.26 (2013-01-06 → 2013-06-28)
yield_10y: 3.60 → 3.51 -0.08 (2013-01-06 → 2013-06-28)
yield_2y: 3.04 → 3.22 +0.18 (2013-01-06 → 2013-06-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 1.40 -0.80 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-14)
gdp: 0.40 → 0.10 -0.30 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-14)
pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 48.70 +2.60 (2013-01-02 → 2013-06-20)
pmi_svc: 47.80 → 48.60 +0.80 (2013-01-04 → 2013-06-20)
policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.50 -0.25 (2012-12-06 → 2013-06-06)
unemployment: 11.70 → 12.20 +0.50 (2012-11-30 → 2013-05-31)
yield_10y: 2.39 → 3.07 +0.68 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.40 +0.10 (2012-12-26 → 2013-06-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.20 → -0.30 -0.10 (2012-12-26 → 2013-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-12-20 → 2013-06-11)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.10 0.00 (2012-12-30 → 2013-06-29)
yield_10y: 0.78 → 0.82 +0.05 (2013-01-01 → 2013-06-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W13 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W17 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose