Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2012-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2012-11daily glanceweekly archive →2013-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2012-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.10 -0.07 (2012-12-01 → 2012-12-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.76 → 1.80 +0.04 (2012-12-01 → 2012-12-15)
  • gdp: 2.70 → 3.10 +0.40 (2012-11-29 → 2012-12-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.70 → 49.50 -2.20 (2012-11-01 → 2012-12-03)
  • pmi_svc: 54.20 → 54.70 +0.50 (2012-11-05 → 2012-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-12-02 → 2012-12-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.37 → 1.46 +0.09 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-28)
  • unemployment: 7.90 → 7.70 -0.20 (2012-12-01 → 2012-12-07)
  • yield_10y: 1.62 → 1.73 +0.11 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.27 +0.02 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 2.00 +0.30 (2012-11-09 → 2012-12-09)
  • pmi_svc: 55.50 → 55.60 +0.10 (2012-11-03 → 2012-12-03)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.51 +0.01 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.53 → 3.58 +0.04 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 3.03 → 3.06 +0.04 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2012-11-30 → 2012-12-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.20 → 46.30 +0.10 (2012-11-22 → 2012-12-14)
  • pmi_svc: 45.70 → 47.80 +2.10 (2012-11-22 → 2012-12-14)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.75 0.00 (2012-11-08 → 2012-12-06)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.50 0.00 (2012-11-25 → 2012-12-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.40 → -0.20 +0.20 (2012-11-25 → 2012-12-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-11-20 → 2012-12-20)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 4.10 0.00 (2012-11-29 → 2012-12-30)

Busiest week: 2012-W48 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2012-W48 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-12 vs 2012-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2012-W48

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W49

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W50

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W51

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W52

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change