Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2012-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2012-09daily glanceweekly archive →2012-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2012-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.16 → 0.10 -0.06 (2012-10-01 → 2012-10-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.16 → 2.00 -0.16 (2012-10-01 → 2012-10-15)
  • gdp: 0.50 → 2.00 +1.50 (2012-10-01 → 2012-10-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-10-07 → 2012-10-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.48 → 1.48 0.00 (2012-10-05 → 2012-10-26)
  • yield_10y: 1.75 → 1.78 +0.03 (2012-10-05 → 2012-10-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.30 +0.03 (2012-10-05 → 2012-10-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2012-09-09 → 2012-10-15)
  • gdp: 7.60 → 7.40 -0.20 (2012-07-13 → 2012-10-18)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.53 → 0.57 +0.05 (2012-09-29 → 2012-10-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.46 → 3.57 +0.12 (2012-09-29 → 2012-10-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.93 → 3.00 +0.07 (2012-09-29 → 2012-10-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.60 -0.10 (2012-09-28 → 2012-10-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 45.30 -0.80 (2012-10-01 → 2012-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 46.10 → 46.20 +0.10 (2012-10-03 → 2012-10-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.60 -0.10 (2012-09-25 → 2012-10-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.40 → -0.30 +0.10 (2012-09-25 → 2012-10-26)

Busiest week: 2012-W43 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W40 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-10 vs 2012-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2012-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2012-W43

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change