Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2012-05

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2012-04daily glanceweekly archive →2012-06 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2012-05 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W21: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.14 → 0.20 +0.06 (2012-05-01 → 2012-05-15)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.74 → 2.30 +0.56 (2012-05-01 → 2012-05-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-05-06 → 2012-05-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.64 → 1.45 -0.19 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-25)
  • yield_10y: 1.91 → 1.75 -0.16 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.30 +0.03 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 3.60 → 3.40 -0.20 (2012-04-09 → 2012-05-11)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.63 → 0.88 +0.25 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.55 → 3.30 -0.25 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.92 → 2.42 -0.50 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2012-04-30 → 2012-05-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.90 → 45.00 -0.90 (2012-05-02 → 2012-05-24)
  • pmi_svc: 46.90 → 46.50 -0.40 (2012-05-04 → 2012-05-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.30 +0.20 (2012-04-25 → 2012-05-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2012-04-25 → 2012-05-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-04-27 → 2012-05-23)

Busiest week: 2012-W21 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W18 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-05 vs 2012-04, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-05).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2012-W18

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2012-W19

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2012-W20

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2012-W21

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active