Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2012-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2012-03daily glanceweekly archive →2012-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2012-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W15: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W17: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.20 +0.01 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.27 → 2.70 +0.43 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-14)
  • gdp: 1.80 → 2.20 +0.40 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.40 → 53.40 +1.00 (2012-03-01 → 2012-04-02)
  • pmi_svc: 57.30 → 56.00 -1.30 (2012-03-05 → 2012-04-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.90 → 1.70 -0.20 (2012-03-30 → 2012-04-27)
  • unemployment: 8.20 → 8.20 0.00 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.23 → 1.96 -0.27 (2012-03-30 → 2012-04-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.26 -0.07 (2012-03-30 → 2012-04-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 3.60 +0.40 (2012-03-09 → 2012-04-09)
  • gdp: 8.90 → 8.10 -0.80 (2012-01-17 → 2012-04-13)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.64 → 0.63 -0.01 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.52 → 3.54 +0.02 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.88 → 2.91 +0.03 (2012-04-01 → 2012-04-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2012-03-30 → 2012-04-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.70 → 46.00 -1.70 (2012-03-22 → 2012-04-23)
  • pmi_svc: 48.70 → 47.90 -0.80 (2012-03-22 → 2012-04-23)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2012-03-08 → 2012-04-04)
  • unemployment: 10.70 → 10.80 +0.10 (2012-03-01 → 2012-04-02)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.60 → -0.50 +0.10 (2012-03-27 → 2012-04-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2012-03-27 → 2012-04-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-03-13 → 2012-04-27)
  • unemployment: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2012-03-31 → 2012-04-29)

Busiest week: 2012-W13 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W13 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-04 vs 2012-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2012-W13

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W14

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W15

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W16

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W17

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change