Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2012-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2012-02daily glanceweekly archive →2012-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2012-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W11: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.10 -0.09 (2012-03-01 → 2012-03-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.58 → 2.90 +0.32 (2012-03-01 → 2012-03-16)
  • pmi_svc: 56.80 → 57.30 +0.50 (2012-02-03 → 2012-03-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-03-04 → 2012-03-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.71 → 1.88 +0.17 (2012-03-02 → 2012-03-23)
  • unemployment: 8.20 → 8.30 +0.10 (2012-03-01 → 2012-03-09)
  • yield_10y: 1.99 → 2.25 +0.26 (2012-03-02 → 2012-03-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.28 → 0.37 +0.09 (2012-03-02 → 2012-03-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.50 → 3.20 -1.30 (2012-02-09 → 2012-03-09)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.58 +0.03 (2012-03-02 → 2012-03-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.56 → 3.53 -0.03 (2012-03-02 → 2012-03-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.00 → 2.94 -0.06 (2012-03-02 → 2012-03-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.70 0.00 (2012-03-01 → 2012-03-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 47.70 -1.30 (2012-03-01 → 2012-03-22)
  • pmi_svc: 49.40 → 48.70 -0.70 (2012-02-22 → 2012-03-22)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2012-02-09 → 2012-03-08)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-02-14 → 2012-03-13)

Busiest week: 2012-W12 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W09 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-03 vs 2012-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2012-W09

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W10

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W11

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2012-W12

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active