Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2012-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2012-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-H1 vs 2011-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target

W09: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W11: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W13: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W15: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W18: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

stagflationary → disinflationary stall

W03: stagflationary → disinflationary stall

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M9 ×4 yield_spike
M3 ×2 policy_easing
M13 ×2 contraction_easing

Japan

M1 ×14 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-14)
core_pce: 2.06 → 1.82 -0.24 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.01 → 1.70 -1.31 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-14)
gdp: 3.40 → 1.90 -1.50 (2012-01-01 → 2012-05-31)
pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 53.50 +0.80 (2011-12-01 → 2012-06-01)
pmi_svc: 52.00 → 53.70 +1.70 (2011-12-05 → 2012-06-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-24)
slope_2s10s: 1.64 → 1.38 -0.26 (2011-12-30 → 2012-06-22)
unemployment: 8.30 → 8.20 -0.10 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)
yield_10y: 1.89 → 1.69 -0.20 (2011-12-30 → 2012-06-22)
yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.31 +0.06 (2011-12-30 → 2012-06-22)

China

cpi_yoy: 4.20 → 3.00 -1.20 (2011-12-09 → 2012-06-09)
gdp: 9.10 → 8.10 -1.00 (2011-10-18 → 2012-04-13)
pmi_mfg: 50.50 → 50.20 -0.30 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)
pmi_svc: 56.30 → 55.20 -1.10 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.97 +0.35 (2011-12-31 → 2012-06-21)
yield_10y: 3.42 → 3.40 -0.02 (2011-12-31 → 2012-06-21)
yield_2y: 2.81 → 2.43 -0.37 (2011-12-31 → 2012-06-21)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.40 -0.60 (2011-12-15 → 2012-06-14)
gdp: 0.30 → -0.10 -0.40 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)
pmi_mfg: 46.90 → 44.80 -2.10 (2011-12-15 → 2012-06-21)
pmi_svc: 48.30 → 46.80 -1.50 (2011-12-15 → 2012-06-21)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2011-12-08 → 2012-06-06)
unemployment: 10.30 → 11.00 +0.70 (2011-11-30 → 2012-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.90 → 3.41 -0.50 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -1.10 → -0.30 +0.80 (2011-12-26 → 2012-05-26)
cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.40 +0.90 (2011-12-26 → 2012-05-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-12-21 → 2012-06-15)
unemployment: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2011-12-30 → 2012-05-30)
yield_10y: 0.96 → 0.79 -0.17 (2012-01-01 → 2012-06-01)

Busiest week: 2012-W21 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W02 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose