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Macro Regime — 2012-W52

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2012-12 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2012-12); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: stall-speed, at target
China: stall-speed, at target
Euro area: disinflationary stall
Japan: deflation watch

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2012-12	2012-11	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.17 2012-12-01	0.13 2012-11-01	→ 0.04
Core PCE	% YoY	1.69 2012-12-01	1.78 2012-11-01	→ -0.09
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.76 2012-12-01	1.8 2012-11-01	→ -0.04
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	49.5 2012-12-03	51.7 2012-11-01	▼ -2.2
PMI (svc)	index	54.7 2012-12-05	54.2 2012-11-05	▲ 0.5
Policy rate	%	0.25 2012-12-31	0.25 2012-11-30	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	1.53 2012-12-31	1.37 2012-11-30	▲ 0.16
Unemployment	%	7.9 2012-12-01	7.7 2012-11-01	▲ 0.2
10Y yield	%	1.78 2012-12-31	1.62 2012-11-30	▲ 0.16
2Y yield	%	0.25 2012-12-31	0.25 2012-11-30	→ 0

China

Indicator	Basis	2012-12	2012-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2 2012-12-09	1.7 2012-11-09	▲ 0.3
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	50.6 2012-12-01	50.6 2012-11-01	→ 0
PMI (svc)	index	55.6 2012-12-03	55.5 2012-11-03	→ 0.1
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	not recorded
2s10s slope	pp	0.51 2012-12-31	0.51 2012-11-30	→ 0.01
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.57 2012-12-31	3.53 2012-11-30	→ 0.04
2Y yield	%	3.06 2012-12-31	3.03 2012-11-30	→ 0.03

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2012-12	2012-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.2 2012-12-14	2.2 2012-11-30	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	-0.2 2012-12-01	0.2 2012-11-01	▼ -0.4
PMI (mfg)	index	46.3 2012-12-14	46.2 2012-11-22	→ 0.1
PMI (svc)	index	47.8 2012-12-14	45.7 2012-11-22	▲ 2.1
Policy rate	%	0.75 2012-12-06	0.75 2012-11-08	→ 0
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	2.1 2012-12-01	2.25 2012-11-01	▼ -0.15

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2012-12	2012-11	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-0.5 2012-12-26	-0.5 2012-11-25	→ 0
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.2 2012-12-26	-0.4 2012-11-25	▲ 0.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2012-12-20	0.1 2012-11-20	→ 0
Unemployment	%	4.1 2012-12-30	4.1 2012-11-29	→ 0
10Y yield	%	0.78 2012-12-01	0.71 2012-11-01	▲ 0.07

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

● 1 active

China

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

Euro area ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

contraction · at target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

○ no change

Japan ⚠ stale

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 51.7 → 49.5 (-2.2)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).
Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise The 10-year yield isn't spiking, so this channel is dormant. A jump of ≥0.1pp would fire it — watch it because it compresses the highest-multiple growth names and long bonds fastest.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.80	1.76	+0.04 ▬	2012-12-15
Core CPI	0.10	0.17	-0.07 ▬	2012-12-14
Core PCE	1.69	1.78	-0.09 ▬	2012-12-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-30
GDP	3.10	2.70	+0.40 ▲	2012-12-20
PMI (mfg)	49.50	51.70	-2.20 ▼	2012-12-03
PMI (svc)	54.70	54.20	+0.50 ▲	2012-12-05
Unemployment	7.70	7.90	-0.20 ▼	2012-12-07
10Y yield	1.73	1.74	-0.01 ▬	2012-12-28
2Y yield	0.27	0.26	+0.01 ▬	2012-12-28
2s10s slope	1.46	1.48	-0.02 ▬	2012-12-28
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.00	1.70	+0.30 ▲	2012-12-09
Policy rate	n/a
GDP	7.40	7.60	-0.20 ▬	2012-10-18
PMI (mfg)	50.60	50.60	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-01
PMI (svc)	55.60	55.50	+0.10 ▬	2012-12-03
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.58	3.58	-0.01 ▬	2012-12-28
2Y yield	3.06	3.10	-0.04 ▬	2012-12-28
2s10s slope	0.51	0.48	+0.03 ▬	2012-12-28
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.20	2.20	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-14
Policy rate	0.75	0.75	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-06
GDP	-0.20	0.20	-0.40 ▼	2012-12-01
PMI (mfg)	46.30	46.20	+0.10 ▬	2012-12-14
PMI (svc)	47.80	46.70	+1.10 ▲	2012-12-14
Unemployment	11.70	11.60	+0.10 ▬	2012-11-30
10Y yield	2.10	2.25	-0.15 ▼	2012-12-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.20	-0.40	+0.20 ▲	2012-12-26
Core CPI	-0.50	-0.50	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-26
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-20
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	4.10	4.10	+0.00 ▬	2012-12-30
10Y yield	0.78	0.71	+0.07 ▲	2012-12-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.