Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2011-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2011-10daily glanceweekly archive →2011-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2011-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.10 -0.07 (2011-11-01 → 2011-11-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.45 → 3.50 +0.05 (2011-11-01 → 2011-11-14)
  • gdp: 2.50 → 2.00 -0.50 (2011-10-27 → 2011-11-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-11-06 → 2011-11-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.84 → 1.69 -0.15 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-25)
  • yield_10y: 2.06 → 1.97 -0.09 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-25)
  • yield_2y: 0.22 → 0.28 +0.06 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-25)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 6.10 → 5.50 -0.60 (2011-10-14 → 2011-11-09)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.44 → 0.59 +0.15 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.72 → 3.61 -0.10 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.27 → 3.02 -0.25 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2011-10-31 → 2011-11-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.10 → 46.40 -0.70 (2011-11-02 → 2011-11-23)
  • pmi_svc: 46.40 → 47.80 +1.40 (2011-11-04 → 2011-11-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -1.00 -0.60 (2011-10-26 → 2011-11-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.00 → -0.20 -0.20 (2011-10-26 → 2011-11-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-10-27 → 2011-11-16)

Busiest week: 2011-W47 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W44 (3 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-11 vs 2011-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2011-W44

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W45

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W46

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W47

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · easing
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 3 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active