Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2011-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2011-09daily glanceweekly archive →2011-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2011-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.10 -0.07 (2011-10-01 → 2011-10-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.52 → 3.90 +0.38 (2011-10-01 → 2011-10-15)
  • gdp: 4.60 → 2.50 -2.10 (2011-10-01 → 2011-10-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 51.60 +1.00 (2011-09-01 → 2011-10-03)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 53.00 -0.30 (2011-09-06 → 2011-10-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-10-02 → 2011-10-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.67 → 2.06 +0.39 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-28)
  • unemployment: 8.80 → 9.10 +0.30 (2011-10-01 → 2011-10-07)
  • yield_10y: 1.92 → 2.34 +0.42 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.28 +0.03 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 6.20 → 6.10 -0.10 (2011-09-09 → 2011-10-14)
  • gdp: 9.50 → 9.10 -0.40 (2011-07-13 → 2011-10-18)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.19 → 0.34 +0.15 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.86 → 3.79 -0.07 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-28)
  • yield_2y: 3.67 → 3.45 -0.22 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2011-09-30 → 2011-10-14)
  • pmi_mfg: 48.40 → 47.30 -1.10 (2011-09-22 → 2011-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 49.10 → 47.20 -1.90 (2011-09-22 → 2011-10-24)
  • policy_rate: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2011-09-08 → 2011-10-06)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.40 +0.10 (2011-09-25 → 2011-10-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.00 -0.20 (2011-09-25 → 2011-10-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-09-07 → 2011-10-27)
  • unemployment: 4.50 → 4.20 -0.30 (2011-09-29 → 2011-10-30)

Busiest week: 2011-W43 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W39 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-10 vs 2011-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2011-W39

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M6_growth_slowdown

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W43

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change