Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2011-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2011-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-H2 vs 2011-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → stagflationary

W29: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W30: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W39: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M9 ×9 yield_spike
M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
M3 ×8 policy_easing
M4 ×4 policy_tightening
M13 ×2 contraction_easing

Japan

M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.20 -0.03 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-16)
core_pce: 1.73 → 1.97 +0.24 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.58 → 3.40 -0.18 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-15)
gdp: -0.10 → 1.80 +1.90 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 55.30 → 52.70 -2.60 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.60 → 52.00 -2.60 (2011-06-03 → 2011-12-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-07-03 → 2011-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 2.72 → 1.75 -0.97 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-23)
unemployment: 9.00 → 8.60 -0.40 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-02)
yield_10y: 3.22 → 2.03 -1.19 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-23)
yield_2y: 0.50 → 0.28 -0.22 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 5.50 → 4.20 -1.30 (2011-06-14 → 2011-12-09)
gdp: 9.70 → 9.10 -0.60 (2011-04-15 → 2011-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 50.70 → 50.30 -0.40 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)
pmi_svc: 56.60 → 55.90 -0.70 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.43 → 0.63 +0.20 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-23)
yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.48 -0.40 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-23)
yield_2y: 3.44 → 2.85 -0.60 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 3.00 +0.30 (2011-06-30 → 2011-12-15)
gdp: 0.00 → 0.10 +0.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)
pmi_mfg: 52.00 → 46.90 -5.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-15)
pmi_svc: 54.20 → 48.30 -5.90 (2011-06-23 → 2011-12-15)
policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.00 -0.25 (2011-06-09 → 2011-12-08)
unemployment: 9.90 → 10.30 +0.40 (2011-07-01 → 2011-11-30)
yield_10y: 4.60 → 4.09 -0.50 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.80 → -1.00 -0.20 (2011-06-25 → 2011-11-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.40 → -0.20 +0.20 (2011-06-25 → 2011-11-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-06-14 → 2011-12-21)
unemployment: 4.60 → 4.40 -0.20 (2011-06-29 → 2011-11-29)
yield_10y: 1.07 → 0.97 -0.10 (2011-07-01 → 2011-12-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W47 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W32 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose