Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2011-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2011-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-H1 vs 2010-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W13: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W15: overheating / late-cycle → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → overheating / late-cycle

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

W15: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → overheating / late-cycle · W22: overheating / late-cycle → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M9 ×8 yield_spike
M4 ×4 policy_tightening

Japan

M1 ×9 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.30 +0.09 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-15)
core_pce: 1.12 → 1.59 +0.47 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 3.60 +1.90 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-14)
gdp: -0.90 → 1.90 +2.80 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-24)
pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 53.50 -3.10 (2010-12-01 → 2011-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.60 -0.40 (2010-12-03 → 2011-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-01-02 → 2011-06-26)
slope_2s10s: 2.69 → 2.53 -0.16 (2010-12-31 → 2011-06-24)
unemployment: 9.10 → 9.10 0.00 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-03)
yield_10y: 3.30 → 2.88 -0.42 (2010-12-31 → 2011-06-24)
yield_2y: 0.61 → 0.35 -0.26 (2010-12-31 → 2011-06-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 5.10 → 5.50 +0.40 (2010-12-11 → 2011-06-14)
gdp: 9.80 → 9.70 -0.10 (2011-01-20 → 2011-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 52.90 → 50.90 -2.00 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-01)
pmi_svc: 58.80 → 58.70 -0.10 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.31 -0.20 (2010-12-31 → 2011-06-24)
yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.90 +0.02 (2010-12-31 → 2011-06-24)
yield_2y: 3.37 → 3.58 +0.21 (2010-12-31 → 2011-06-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 2.70 +0.80 (2010-12-16 → 2011-06-16)
gdp: 0.60 → 0.00 -0.60 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-01)
pmi_mfg: 56.80 → 52.00 -4.80 (2010-12-16 → 2011-06-23)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 54.20 +0.50 (2010-12-16 → 2011-06-23)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.25 +0.25 (2010-12-02 → 2011-06-09)
unemployment: 10.10 → 9.90 -0.20 (2010-11-30 → 2011-05-31)
yield_10y: 3.93 → 4.37 +0.44 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.90 → -0.80 +0.10 (2010-12-26 → 2011-06-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.10 → -0.40 -0.50 (2010-12-26 → 2011-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-12-21 → 2011-06-14)
unemployment: 5.00 → 4.70 -0.30 (2010-12-30 → 2011-05-30)
yield_10y: 1.21 → 1.08 -0.13 (2011-01-01 → 2011-06-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W05 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W18 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose