Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2010-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2010-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2010-H2 vs 2010-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2010-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

W28: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W48: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W50: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M5 ×18 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×10 growth_acceleration
M9 ×8 yield_spike

Japan

M9 ×4 yield_spike
M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.08 → 0.10 +0.02 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-15)
core_pce: 1.47 → 1.06 -0.41 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.34 → 1.10 -0.24 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-15)
gdp: 3.10 → 2.60 -0.50 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 56.20 → 56.60 +0.40 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.40 → 55.00 -0.40 (2010-06-03 → 2010-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2010-07-04 → 2010-12-26)
slope_2s10s: 2.37 → 2.74 +0.37 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-23)
unemployment: 9.50 → 9.80 +0.30 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-03)
yield_10y: 3.00 → 3.41 +0.41 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-23)
yield_2y: 0.63 → 0.67 +0.04 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 5.10 +2.20 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-11)
pmi_mfg: 51.20 → 53.90 +2.70 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)
pmi_svc: 58.80 → 58.90 +0.10 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)
slope_2s10s: 1.00 → 0.50 -0.50 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-24)
yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.81 +0.55 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-24)
yield_2y: 2.26 → 3.31 +1.05 (2010-07-02 → 2010-12-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.90 +0.50 (2010-06-30 → 2010-12-16)
gdp: 0.00 → 0.10 +0.10 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)
pmi_mfg: 55.60 → 56.80 +1.20 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-16)
pmi_svc: 55.40 → 53.70 -1.70 (2010-06-23 → 2010-12-16)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2010-06-10 → 2010-12-02)
unemployment: 10.00 → 10.10 +0.10 (2010-07-02 → 2010-11-30)
yield_10y: 3.61 → 4.05 +0.44 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -1.60 → -0.90 +0.70 (2010-06-25 → 2010-12-26)
cpi_yoy: -0.90 → 0.10 +1.00 (2010-06-25 → 2010-12-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-06-15 → 2010-12-21)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.10 0.00 (2010-06-29 → 2010-11-29)
yield_10y: 1.07 → 1.13 +0.06 (2010-07-01 → 2010-12-01)

Busiest week: 2010-W45 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2010-W26 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose