Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2010-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2010-03daily glanceweekly archive →2010-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2010-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
expansion, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.00 -0.02 (2010-04-01 → 2010-04-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.21 → 2.30 +0.09 (2010-04-01 → 2010-04-14)
  • pmi_svc: 53.00 → 55.40 +2.40 (2010-03-03 → 2010-04-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2010-04-04 → 2010-04-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.85 → 2.74 -0.11 (2010-04-02 → 2010-04-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.96 → 3.84 -0.12 (2010-04-02 → 2010-04-23)
  • yield_2y: 1.11 → 1.10 -0.01 (2010-04-02 → 2010-04-23)
China
  • slope_2s10s: 1.46 → 1.42 -0.04 (2010-04-02 → 2010-04-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.48 → 3.41 -0.07 (2010-04-02 → 2010-04-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.02 → 1.99 -0.03 (2010-04-02 → 2010-04-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.40 -0.10 (2010-03-31 → 2010-04-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 57.50 +0.90 (2010-04-01 → 2010-04-22)
  • pmi_svc: 53.70 → 55.50 +1.80 (2010-03-24 → 2010-04-22)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2010-03-04 → 2010-04-08)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.10 → -1.10 0.00 (2010-03-28 → 2010-04-25)
  • cpi_yoy: -1.10 → -1.10 0.00 (2010-03-28 → 2010-04-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-03-17 → 2010-04-07)

Busiest week: 2010-W13 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2010-W13 (4 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2010-04 vs 2010-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2010-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2010-W13

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W14

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W15

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W16

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change