Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2010-03

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2010-02daily glanceweekly archive →2010-04 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2010-03 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.10 +0.08 (2010-03-01 → 2010-03-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.29 → 2.10 -0.19 (2010-03-01 → 2010-03-17)
  • gdp: 5.90 → 5.60 -0.30 (2010-02-26 → 2010-03-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2010-03-07 → 2010-03-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.78 → 2.82 +0.04 (2010-03-05 → 2010-03-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.69 → 3.86 +0.17 (2010-03-05 → 2010-03-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.91 → 1.04 +0.13 (2010-03-05 → 2010-03-26)
China
  • slope_2s10s: 1.29 → 1.49 +0.20 (2010-03-05 → 2010-03-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.35 → 3.46 +0.10 (2010-03-05 → 2010-03-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.06 → 1.97 -0.09 (2010-03-05 → 2010-03-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.90 0.00 (2010-03-02 → 2010-03-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.20 → 56.30 +2.10 (2010-03-01 → 2010-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 51.80 → 53.70 +1.90 (2010-03-03 → 2010-03-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.20 → -1.10 +0.10 (2010-02-25 → 2010-03-28)
  • cpi_yoy: -1.30 → -1.10 +0.20 (2010-02-25 → 2010-03-28)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-02-18 → 2010-03-17)

Busiest week: 2010-W12 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2010-W09 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2010-03 vs 2010-02, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2010-03).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2010-W09

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W10

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W11

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W12

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change