Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2026-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2026-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2026-Q1 vs 2025-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2026-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W03: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W05: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W09: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W11: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W04: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×13 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
  • M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)
  • core_pce: 3.08 → 3.20 +0.12 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.83 → 2.40 -0.43 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-11)
  • fx: 98.42 → 100.15 +1.73 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
  • policy_rate: 3.75 → 3.75 0.00 (2026-01-04 → 2026-03-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.72 → 0.56 -0.16 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
  • unemployment: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)
  • yield_10y: 4.19 → 4.44 +0.25 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.47 → 3.88 +0.41 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
China
  • fx: 7.00 → 6.91 -0.09 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 50.40 +1.10 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)
  • policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-12-22 → 2026-03-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.52 +0.03 (2026-01-04 → 2026-03-27)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.40 +0.20 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)
  • yield_10y: 1.84 → 1.82 -0.03 (2026-01-04 → 2026-03-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.35 → 1.30 -0.06 (2026-01-04 → 2026-03-27)
Euro area
  • fx: 1.18 → 1.15 -0.02 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.40 -0.20 (2025-12-19 → 2026-03-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 1.30 -1.60 (2025-12-19 → 2026-03-24)
  • fx: 156.73 → 159.70 +2.97 (2026-01-02 → 2026-03-27)
  • unemployment: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2025-12-26 → 2026-03-03)
  • yield_10y: 2.24 → 2.35 +0.10 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)

Busiest week: 2026-W12 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2026-W05 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose