Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2026-H1

Half-year aggregate · 18 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2026-H1 — 18 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2026-H1 vs 2025-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2026-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 18 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W04: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M13 ×18 contraction_easing
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

no fires

Japan

M9 ×14 yield_spike
M2 ×6 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.38 +0.08 (2026-01-01 → 2026-04-01)
core_pce: 3.08 → 3.20 +0.12 (2026-01-01 → 2026-03-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.83 → 3.80 +0.97 (2026-01-01 → 2026-05-12)
fx: 98.42 → 99.32 +0.90 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-22)
policy_rate: 3.75 → 3.75 0.00 (2026-01-04 → 2026-05-24)
slope_2s10s: 0.72 → 0.43 -0.29 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-22)
unemployment: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2026-01-01 → 2026-04-01)
yield_10y: 4.19 → 4.56 +0.37 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-22)
yield_2y: 3.47 → 4.13 +0.66 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-22)

China

fx: 7.00 → 6.79 -0.20 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-23)
pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 50.30 +1.00 (2026-01-01 → 2026-04-01)
policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2025-12-22 → 2026-05-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.49 → 0.49 -0.00 (2026-01-04 → 2026-05-22)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.20 0.00 (2026-01-01 → 2026-04-01)
yield_10y: 1.84 → 1.75 -0.09 (2026-01-04 → 2026-05-22)
yield_2y: 1.35 → 1.26 -0.09 (2026-01-04 → 2026-05-22)

Euro area

fx: 1.18 → 1.16 -0.01 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-22)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.10 -0.50 (2025-12-19 → 2026-05-22)
cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 1.40 -1.50 (2025-12-19 → 2026-05-22)
fx: 156.73 → 159.15 +2.42 (2026-01-02 → 2026-05-22)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2025-12-26 → 2026-04-28)
yield_10y: 2.24 → 2.52 +0.28 (2026-01-01 → 2026-04-01)

Busiest week: 2026-W12 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2026-W05 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose