Only one week of May (W21) has been run through System 3 so far, so the month-to-date read is preliminary. The signal in hand: disinflation is broadening outside the US (Japan core to 1.1%, China pinned at 0.0%) while the US re-accelerates to 3.8% — a divergence worth watching as more of the month lands.
Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder
Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.
Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion
One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.
Per-region breakdown — 2026-05 vs 2026-04, with trend
Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper
A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric
Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2026-05).
How the thesis moved this month
The world is splitting at the inflation seam. US headline CPI re-accelerated to 3.8% (from 3.3%) while core CPI also lifted to 0.38% MoM and core PCE ticked up to 3.2% YoY — yet the only US mechanism that *fired* is the trough signal M13 (contraction easing), because the stale-but-rising ISM print (48 → 48.7) keys on direction not level. Japan went the opposite way and lit up two channels at once: a clean downside core-CPI surprise (1.4% → 1.1%, M2 disinflation) sitting alongside a 17bp jump in the 10-year (M9 yield spike) on a still-stale April print. China stays in deflation watch with no new fires; Europe is a stall-speed-at-target panel where every hard print is months old and the only news worth weighing is ECB Governing Council member Stournaras floating a credibility hike.
The month's arc
W21 is the first datapoint of the month: Japan and China disinflating, the euro area quietly on-target, and the US late-cycle with a re-accelerated CPI sitting over a factory-trough read that fired on a stale (Sept-2025) ISM print. The arc — and any regime-shift call — will fill in as W22 and the rest of the month run; with one week in, it is too early to call a trajectory.
Regime-shift call — too early (1 of 5 weeks in); appears once enough of the month has landed.
Special focus — too early (1 of 5 weeks in); appears once enough of the month has landed.
Month-ahead scenarios
Month-ahead scenarios — too early (1 of 5 weeks in); appears once enough of the month has landed.
What to watch
Whether the US-vs-rest-of-world inflation divergence persists as more weeks print.
The next US core PCE — the Fed's actual reaction variable, which adjudicates whether the 3.8% headline is supply (reverts) or demand (sticks).
Any China LPR cut (would fire the credit-impulse channel) and the yen at 159 (carry/intervention risk).
🔒 2026-W18 hasn't happened yet — week ending 2026-05-03. This slot fills when the week closes.
🔒 2026-W19 hasn't happened yet — week ending 2026-05-10. This slot fills when the week closes.
🔒 2026-W20 hasn't happened yet — week ending 2026-05-17. This slot fills when the week closes.
The world is splitting at the inflation seam. US headline CPI re-accelerated to 3.8% (from 3.3%) while core CPI also lifted to 0.38% MoM and core PCE ticked up to 3.2% YoY — yet the only US mechanism that *fired* is the trough signal M13 (contraction easing), because the stale-but-rising ISM print (48 → 48.7) keys on direction not level. Japan went the opposite way and lit up two channels at once: a clean downside core-CPI surprise (1.4% → 1.1%, M2 disinflation) sitting alongside a 17bp jump in the 10-year (M9 yield spike) on a still-stale April print. China stays in deflation watch with no new fires; Europe is a stall-speed-at-target panel where every hard print is months old and the only news worth weighing is ECB Governing Council member Stournaras floating a credibility hike.
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 2 active
What to watch
US — next core CPI / core PCE. Core lifted +0.18pp this print, fractionally below M1's 0.2pp trigger. A core MoM ≥0.2pp would fire M1 (upside inflation surprise) — the cleanest signal that the headline pop is the start of something the Fed has to react to, not noise.
US — fresh ISM. The M13 trough call is firing on a 9-month-old print. A current ISM ≥50 would confirm and broaden the read (rotation to early-cycle cyclicals); a current ISM <48 that's *falling* would flip M13 off and arm M6 (deepening contraction) — the opposite trade.
Japan — does the yield spike persist? A multi-session move (not just the +17bp April print) keeps M9 alive and pressures the yen carry. The bundle's caveat — single-day jumps can be noise; the term-premium read needs follow-through — applies.
EU — any movement on policy_rate. Stournaras' credibility-hike floater is news, not data. An actual hike would fire M4 (monetary tightening) for the first time in months; absent action it stays interpretation.
🔒 2026-W22 hasn't happened yet — week ending 2026-05-31. This slot fills when the week closes.