Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2026-04

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2026-03daily glanceweekly archive →2026-05 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2026-04 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • cpi_yoy: 3.95 → 3.30 -0.65 (2026-04-01 → 2026-04-10)
  • fx: 100.03 → 98.51 -1.52 (2026-04-02 → 2026-04-24)
  • policy_rate: 3.75 → 3.75 0.00 (2026-04-05 → 2026-04-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.53 +0.02 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
  • yield_10y: 4.35 → 4.31 -0.04 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
  • yield_2y: 3.84 → 3.78 -0.06 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
China
  • fx: 6.89 → 6.83 -0.06 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
  • policy_rate: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2026-03-20 → 2026-04-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.52 → 0.52 +0.00 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
  • yield_10y: 1.82 → 1.76 -0.06 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
  • yield_2y: 1.30 → 1.24 -0.06 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
Euro area
  • fx: 1.15 → 1.17 +0.01 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2026-03-24 → 2026-04-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.50 +0.20 (2026-03-24 → 2026-04-24)
  • fx: 159.49 → 159.75 +0.26 (2026-04-03 → 2026-04-24)

Busiest week: 2026-W14 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2026-W14 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2026-04 vs 2026-03, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2026-04).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2026-W14

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2026-W15

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2026-W16

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2026-W17

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active