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Macro Regime — 2024-W50

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2024-12 board

⚠ 0 very-stale + 2 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2024-12); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: disinflationary stall
China: deflation watch
Euro area: disinflationary stall
Japan: overheating / late-cycle

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2024-12	2024-11	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.19 2024-12-01	0.29 2024-11-01	→ -0.1
Core PCE	% YoY	2.99 2024-12-01	2.98 2024-11-01	→ 0.01
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.87 2024-12-01	2.72 2024-11-01	▲ 0.15
FX vs USD	px	108.49 2024-12-31	105.74 2024-11-29	▲ 2.75
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	48.4 2024-12-02	46.5 2024-11-01	▲ 1.9
PMI (svc)	index	52.1 2024-12-04	56 2024-11-05	▼ -3.9
Policy rate	%	4.5 2024-12-31	4.75 2024-11-30	▼ -0.25
2s10s slope	pp	0.33 2024-12-31	0.05 2024-11-29	▲ 0.28
Unemployment	%	4.1 2024-12-01	4.2 2024-11-01	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	4.58 2024-12-31	4.18 2024-11-29	▲ 0.4
2Y yield	%	4.25 2024-12-31	4.13 2024-11-29	▲ 0.12

China

Indicator	Basis	2024-12	2024-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	0.2 2024-12-09	0.3 2024-11-09	→ -0.1
FX vs USD	px	7.3 2024-12-31	7.24 2024-11-29	→ 0.06
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	50.1 2024-12-01	50.3 2024-11-01	→ -0.2
PMI (svc)	index	52.2 2024-12-31	50 2024-11-30	▲ 2.2
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	3.1 2024-12-20	3.1 2024-11-20	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.54 2024-12-31	0.65 2024-11-29	▼ -0.12
Unemployment	%	5.1 2024-12-01	5 2024-11-01	→ 0.1
10Y yield	%	1.68 2024-12-31	2.02 2024-11-29	▼ -0.35
2Y yield	%	1.14 2024-12-31	1.37 2024-11-29	▼ -0.23

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2024-12	2024-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.2 2024-12-18	2.3 2024-11-29	→ -0.1
FX vs USD	px	1.04 2024-12-31	1.06 2024-11-29	→ -0.02
GDP	% YoY	-0.3 2024-12-18	-0.3 2024-11-29	→ 0
PMI (mfg)	index	45.2 2024-12-16	45.2 2024-11-22	→ 0
PMI (svc)	index	51.4 2024-12-16	49.2 2024-11-22	▲ 2.2
Policy rate	%	3.15 2024-12-12	—	—
Unemployment	%	6.3 2024-12-02	—	—
10Y yield	%	2.81 2024-12-01	2.93 2024-11-01	▼ -0.12

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2024-12	2024-11	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	1.7 2024-12-20	1.6 2024-11-22	→ 0.1
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.9 2024-12-20	2.3 2024-11-22	▲ 0.6
FX vs USD	px	156.99 2024-12-31	151.17 2024-11-29	▲ 5.82
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.25 2024-12-19	—	—
Unemployment	%	2.5 2024-12-27	2.5 2024-11-29	→ 0
10Y yield	%	1.09 2024-12-01	1.05 2024-11-01	→ 0.04

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

disinflationary stall

stall · below target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

● 1 active

China

deflation watch

stall · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

Euro area ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

contraction · at target · easing

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

stall-speed, at target

unknown · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 46.5 → 48.4 (+1.9)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary. and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

Caveat: A one-month uptick that doesn't persist is a head-fake; the turn needs follow-through, and a sub-50 level still means activity is contracting in absolute terms — this is an inflection signal, not an all-clear.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M3Monetary easing (rate cut)

Trigger: policy_rate: 3.4 → 3.15 (-0.25)

The central bank cuts its policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates..
Why: The policy rate anchors the entire rate structure, so a cut lowers the risk-free baseline against which every asset is valued.
Discount ratesdiscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. fall across asset classes and liquidity expectations rise.
Why: A lower risk-free rate raises the present value of future cash flows everywhere, and a cut signals the bank will keep conditions loose.
Risk assets re-rate up; the currency softens.
Why: Cheaper money flows toward higher-returning assets, and a lower local rate narrows the yield advantage of holding the currency, so it weakens.
The weaker currency lifts exporters, commodities, gold, and EM.
Why: Commodities priced in the easing currency rise in that currency; exporters gain competitiveness; and EM borrowers with dollar debt benefit as the dollar softens.

Helps
equities (broadly)goldEM assetslong-duration bondscommodities

Hurts
the easing currencycash/money-market real yield

Caveat: If the cut is an emergency response to a fast-deteriorating outlook ('cutting into a recession'), equities can fall even as bonds rally — the growth signal outweighs the liquidity boost.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.70	2.87	-0.17 ▼	2024-12-11
Core CPI	0.30	0.19	+0.11 ▲	2024-12-11
Core PCE	2.99	2.80	+0.19 ▲	2024-12-01
Policy rate	4.75	4.75	+0.00 ▬	2024-12-15
GDP	2.80	2.80	+0.00 ▬	2024-11-27
PMI (mfg)	48.40	46.50	+1.90 ▲	2024-12-02
PMI (svc)	52.10	56.00	-3.90 ▼	2024-12-04
Unemployment	4.20	4.10	+0.10 ▲	2024-12-06
10Y yield	4.40	4.32	+0.08 ▲	2024-12-13
2Y yield	4.25	4.18	+0.07 ▲	2024-12-13
2s10s slope	0.15	0.14	+0.01 ▬	2024-12-13
FX vs USD	107.00	106.96	+0.04 ▬	2024-12-13

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.20	0.30	-0.10 ▬	2024-12-09
Policy rate	3.10	3.10	+0.00 ▬	2024-11-20
GDP	4.60	4.70	-0.10 ▬	2024-10-18
PMI (mfg)	50.10	50.30	-0.20 ▬	2024-12-01
PMI (svc)	50.00	50.20	-0.20 ▬	2024-11-30
Unemployment	5.10	5.00	+0.10 ▬	2024-12-01
10Y yield	1.78	1.82	-0.04 ▬	2024-12-13
2Y yield	1.18	1.23	-0.05 ▬	2024-12-13
2s10s slope	0.60	0.59	+0.01 ▬	2024-12-13
FX vs USD	7.27	7.26	+0.01 ▬	2024-12-13

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.30	2.00	+0.30 ▲	2024-11-29
Policy rate	3.15	3.40	-0.25 ▼	2024-12-12
GDP	-0.30	0.30	-0.60 ▼	2024-11-29
PMI (mfg)	45.20	45.20	+0.00 ▬	2024-12-02
PMI (svc)	49.50	49.20	+0.30 ▬	2024-12-04
Unemployment	6.30	6.30	+0.00 ▬	2024-12-02
10Y yield	2.81	2.93	-0.12 ▼	2024-12-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	1.05	1.05	-0.00 ▬	2024-12-13

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.30	2.50	-0.20 ▼	2024-11-22
Core CPI	1.60	1.70	-0.10 ▬	2024-11-22
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2024-10-31
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.50	2.40	+0.10 ▲	2024-11-29
10Y yield	1.09	1.05	+0.04 ▬	2024-12-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	152.59	152.24	+0.34 ▬	2024-12-13

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.