Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2024-09

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2024-08daily glanceweekly archive →2024-10 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2024-09 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
China
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
Euro area
  • M3 ×3 policy_easing
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
  • M4 ×3 policy_tightening
  • M12 ×3 boj_normalization

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.31 → 0.30 -0.01 (2024-09-01 → 2024-09-11)
  • core_pce: 2.84 → 2.70 -0.14 (2024-09-01 → 2024-09-27)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.43 → 2.50 +0.07 (2024-09-01 → 2024-09-11)
  • fx: 101.70 → 100.42 -1.28 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
  • gdp: 3.00 → 3.00 0.00 (2024-08-29 → 2024-09-26)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.80 → 47.20 +0.40 (2024-08-01 → 2024-09-03)
  • pmi_svc: 51.40 → 51.50 +0.10 (2024-08-05 → 2024-09-05)
  • policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.00 -0.50 (2024-09-01 → 2024-09-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.00 → 0.20 +0.20 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2024-09-01 → 2024-09-06)
  • yield_10y: 3.91 → 3.75 -0.16 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.91 → 3.55 -0.36 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.60 +0.10 (2024-08-09 → 2024-09-09)
  • fx: 7.10 → 7.01 -0.09 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
  • policy_rate: 3.35 → 3.35 0.00 (2024-08-20 → 2024-09-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.65 → 0.76 +0.11 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-29)
  • yield_10y: 2.17 → 2.25 +0.08 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-29)
  • yield_2y: 1.52 → 1.49 -0.03 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-18)
  • fx: 1.11 → 1.12 +0.01 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
  • gdp: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 45.60 → 44.80 -0.80 (2024-08-22 → 2024-09-23)
  • pmi_svc: 53.30 → 50.50 -2.80 (2024-08-22 → 2024-09-23)
  • policy_rate: 4.25 → 3.65 -0.60 (2024-07-18 → 2024-09-12)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.60 → 1.70 +0.10 (2024-08-23 → 2024-09-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 3.00 +0.20 (2024-08-23 → 2024-09-20)
  • fx: 144.89 → 145.08 +0.19 (2024-08-30 → 2024-09-27)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2024-07-31 → 2024-09-20)

Busiest week: 2024-W37 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W38 (3 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-09 vs 2024-08, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-09).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2024-W35

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M12_boj_normalization, M13_contraction_easing, M2_inflation_surprise_down, M4_policy_tightening, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · tightening
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 3 active

2024-W36

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M12_boj_normalization, M13_contraction_easing, M2_inflation_surprise_down, M4_policy_tightening

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · tightening
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 3 active

2024-W37

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M12_boj_normalization, M13_contraction_easing, M2_inflation_surprise_down, M3_policy_easing, M4_policy_tightening

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · tightening
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 3 active

2024-W38

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2024-W39

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M3_policy_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change