Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2023-11

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2023-10daily glanceweekly archive →2023-12 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2023-11 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stagflationary · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M10 ×4 curve_inversion
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2023-11-01 → 2023-11-14)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.13 → 3.20 +0.07 (2023-11-01 → 2023-11-14)
  • fx: 105.02 → 103.40 -1.62 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2023-11-05 → 2023-11-26)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.26 → -0.45 -0.19 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • yield_10y: 4.57 → 4.47 -0.10 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • yield_2y: 4.83 → 4.92 +0.09 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.00 → -0.20 -0.20 (2023-10-13 → 2023-11-09)
  • fx: 7.31 → 7.09 -0.23 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.45 0.00 (2023-10-20 → 2023-11-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.25 -0.04 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.66 → 2.71 +0.04 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.37 → 2.46 +0.09 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.90 0.00 (2023-10-31 → 2023-11-17)
  • fx: 1.06 → 1.09 +0.03 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)
  • gdp: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2023-10-31 → 2023-11-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 43.10 → 43.80 +0.70 (2023-11-02 → 2023-11-23)
  • pmi_svc: 47.80 → 48.20 +0.40 (2023-10-24 → 2023-11-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.60 → 2.70 +0.10 (2023-10-20 → 2023-11-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 3.30 +0.30 (2023-10-20 → 2023-11-24)
  • fx: 150.50 → 149.63 -0.86 (2023-11-03 → 2023-11-24)

Busiest week: 2023-W47 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W44 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023-11 vs 2023-10, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023-11).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2023-W44

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
○ no change
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2023-W45

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2023-W46

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change

2023-W47

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M13_contraction_easing, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · on hold
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change