Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2023-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Half-year

2023-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2023-H1 vs 2022-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2023-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
W05: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
China
stall-speed, at target → deflation watch
W05: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W09: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target · W10: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W19: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Euro area
stagflationary · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M10 ×26 curve_inversion
  • M6 ×13 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×9 contraction_easing
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M4 ×26 policy_tightening
  • M6 ×6 growth_slowdown
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M13 ×2 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M1 ×17 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.41 → 0.40 -0.01 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-13)
  • core_pce: 4.94 → 4.38 -0.56 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 6.33 → 4.00 -2.33 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-13)
  • fx: 103.52 → 102.90 -0.62 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
  • gdp: 2.90 → 1.30 -1.60 (2023-01-01 → 2023-05-25)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 46.90 -2.10 (2022-12-01 → 2023-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 56.50 → 50.30 -6.20 (2022-12-05 → 2023-06-05)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 5.25 +0.75 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-25)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.53 → -0.97 -0.44 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
  • unemployment: 3.50 → 3.70 +0.20 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-02)
  • yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.74 -0.14 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
  • yield_2y: 4.41 → 4.71 +0.30 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 0.20 -1.40 (2022-12-09 → 2023-06-09)
  • fx: 6.96 → 7.18 +0.22 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
  • gdp: 3.90 → 4.50 +0.60 (2022-10-24 → 2023-04-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 49.00 -1.10 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-01)
  • pmi_svc: 41.60 → 54.50 +12.90 (2022-12-31 → 2023-05-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.55 -0.10 (2022-12-20 → 2023-06-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.48 → 0.48 -0.01 (2022-12-31 → 2023-06-25)
  • unemployment: 5.50 → 5.20 -0.30 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.84 → 2.66 -0.18 (2022-12-31 → 2023-06-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.35 → 2.18 -0.17 (2022-12-31 → 2023-06-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 10.10 → 6.10 -4.00 (2022-12-16 → 2023-06-16)
  • fx: 1.07 → 1.10 +0.03 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.00 +0.10 (2022-12-16 → 2023-06-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.80 → 43.60 -4.20 (2022-12-16 → 2023-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 49.10 → 52.40 +3.30 (2022-12-16 → 2023-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 4.00 +1.50 (2022-12-15 → 2023-06-15)
  • unemployment: 6.50 → 6.50 0.00 (2022-12-01 → 2023-06-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.04 → 3.16 +0.12 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.50 → 2.60 +1.10 (2022-12-23 → 2023-06-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.80 → 3.20 -0.60 (2022-12-23 → 2023-06-23)
  • fx: 132.92 → 143.03 +10.11 (2022-12-30 → 2023-06-23)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-12-20 → 2023-06-16)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.60 +0.10 (2022-12-27 → 2023-05-30)
  • yield_10y: 0.49 → 0.40 -0.10 (2023-01-01 → 2023-06-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W52 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2023-W22 (3 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2023-Q1
quarterly board
2023-Q2
quarterly board