Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2022-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2022-11daily glanceweekly archive →2023-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2022-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
disinflationary stall · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary · held all period
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M10 ×4 curve_inversion
China
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M4 ×4 policy_tightening
  • M13 ×2 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.20 -0.16 (2022-12-01 → 2022-12-13)
  • core_pce: 4.97 → 4.70 -0.27 (2022-12-01 → 2022-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 6.40 → 7.10 +0.70 (2022-12-01 → 2022-12-13)
  • fx: 104.55 → 104.31 -0.24 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • gdp: 2.90 → 3.20 +0.30 (2022-11-30 → 2022-12-22)
  • pmi_svc: 54.40 → 56.50 +2.10 (2022-11-03 → 2022-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 4.00 → 4.50 +0.50 (2022-12-04 → 2022-12-25)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.77 → -0.56 +0.21 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.51 → 3.75 +0.24 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 4.28 → 4.31 +0.03 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 1.60 -0.50 (2022-11-09 → 2022-12-09)
  • fx: 7.04 → 6.98 -0.06 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.65 0.00 (2022-11-21 → 2022-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.53 → 0.48 -0.06 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.87 → 2.83 -0.04 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 2.33 → 2.35 +0.02 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 10.00 → 10.10 +0.10 (2022-11-30 → 2022-12-16)
  • fx: 1.05 → 1.06 +0.01 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • gdp: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-11-30 → 2022-12-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.10 → 47.80 +0.70 (2022-12-01 → 2022-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 48.60 → 49.10 +0.50 (2022-11-23 → 2022-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.50 +0.50 (2022-10-27 → 2022-12-15)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2022-11-18 → 2022-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.70 → 3.80 +0.10 (2022-11-18 → 2022-12-23)
  • fx: 135.15 → 132.36 -2.79 (2022-12-02 → 2022-12-23)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-10-28 → 2022-12-20)

Busiest week: 2022-W50 (7 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W48 (6 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-12 vs 2022-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2022-W48

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M4_policy_tightening, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area
stagflationary
contraction · above target · tightening
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Japan
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active

2022-W49

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M4_policy_tightening, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · tightening
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active

2022-W50

● 6 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M13_contraction_easing, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M4_policy_tightening, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · tightening
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active

2022-W51

● 5 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M10_curve_inversion, M13_contraction_easing, M4_policy_tightening, M6_growth_slowdown, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
contraction · at target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
stagflationary
contraction · above target · tightening
Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
unknown · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active