Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2022-06

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2022-05daily glanceweekly archive →2022-07 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2022-06 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.68 → 0.60 -0.08 (2022-06-01 → 2022-06-10)
  • cpi_yoy: 8.98 → 8.60 -0.38 (2022-06-01 → 2022-06-10)
  • fx: 102.14 → 104.19 +2.05 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.75 +0.75 (2022-06-05 → 2022-06-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.30 → 0.09 -0.21 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.96 → 3.13 +0.17 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.66 → 3.04 +0.38 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.10 0.00 (2022-05-11 → 2022-06-10)
  • fx: 6.66 → 6.70 +0.04 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
  • policy_rate: 3.70 → 3.70 0.00 (2022-05-20 → 2022-06-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.48 → 0.49 +0.01 (2022-06-02 → 2022-06-24)
  • yield_10y: 2.76 → 2.80 +0.04 (2022-06-02 → 2022-06-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.28 → 2.31 +0.03 (2022-06-02 → 2022-06-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 8.10 → 8.10 0.00 (2022-05-31 → 2022-06-17)
  • fx: 1.08 → 1.05 -0.02 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
  • gdp: 0.80 → 0.80 0.00 (2022-05-31 → 2022-06-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.60 → 52.00 -2.60 (2022-06-01 → 2022-06-23)
  • pmi_svc: 56.10 → 52.80 -3.30 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-23)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2022-04-14 → 2022-06-09)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2022-05-20 → 2022-06-24)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2022-05-20 → 2022-06-24)
  • fx: 129.92 → 134.84 +4.92 (2022-06-03 → 2022-06-24)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-04-28 → 2022-06-17)

Busiest week: 2022-W23 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W25 (3 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-06 vs 2022-05, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-06).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2022-W22

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2022-W23

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 2 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2022-W24

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active

2022-W25

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
overheating / late-cycle
expansion · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change