Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2022-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2022-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2022-H2 vs 2022-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2022-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W32: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W36: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W41: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W45: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target · W48: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Euro area

overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary

Japan

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W38: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×25 curve_inversion
M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×6 inflation_surprise_down
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M6 ×18 growth_slowdown
M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M4 ×23 policy_tightening
M9 ×9 yield_spike
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M13 ×3 contraction_easing

Japan

M1 ×18 inflation_surprise_up
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.35 → 0.20 -0.15 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-13)
core_pce: 5.11 → 4.70 -0.41 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 8.46 → 7.10 -1.36 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-13)
fx: 105.14 → 104.31 -0.83 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
gdp: 2.90 → 3.20 +0.30 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 53.00 → 49.00 -4.00 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.90 → 56.50 +0.60 (2022-06-03 → 2022-12-05)
policy_rate: 1.75 → 4.50 +2.75 (2022-07-03 → 2022-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 0.04 → -0.56 -0.60 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.70 +0.20 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-02)
yield_10y: 2.88 → 3.75 +0.87 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
yield_2y: 2.84 → 4.31 +1.47 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 1.60 -0.50 (2022-06-10 → 2022-12-09)
fx: 6.70 → 6.98 +0.28 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
gdp: 4.80 → 3.90 -0.90 (2022-04-18 → 2022-10-24)
pmi_mfg: 49.00 → 47.00 -2.00 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.70 → 46.70 -8.00 (2022-06-30 → 2022-11-30)
policy_rate: 3.70 → 3.65 -0.05 (2022-06-20 → 2022-12-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.53 → 0.48 -0.06 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
unemployment: 5.40 → 5.50 +0.10 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-01)
yield_10y: 2.83 → 2.83 -0.00 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
yield_2y: 2.29 → 2.35 +0.06 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 8.60 → 10.10 +1.50 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-16)
fx: 1.05 → 1.06 +0.01 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
gdp: 0.80 → -0.10 -0.90 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.10 → 47.80 -4.30 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-16)
pmi_svc: 52.80 → 49.10 -3.70 (2022-06-23 → 2022-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 2.50 +2.50 (2022-06-09 → 2022-12-15)
unemployment: 6.60 → 6.50 -0.10 (2022-06-30 → 2022-12-01)
yield_10y: 2.09 → 3.00 +0.91 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.20 → 1.50 +1.30 (2022-06-24 → 2022-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 3.80 +1.30 (2022-06-24 → 2022-12-23)
fx: 135.79 → 132.36 -3.43 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-23)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2022-06-17 → 2022-12-20)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2022-07-01 → 2022-11-29)
yield_10y: 0.18 → 0.41 +0.23 (2022-07-01 → 2022-12-01)

Busiest week: 2022-W35 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2022-W26 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose