Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M3Monetary easing (rate cut)

Trigger: policy_rate: 4.15 → 4.05 (-0.1)

The central bank cuts its policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates..
Why: The policy rate anchors the entire rate structure, so a cut lowers the risk-free baseline against which every asset is valued.
Discount ratesdiscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. fall across asset classes and liquidity expectations rise.
Why: A lower risk-free rate raises the present value of future cash flows everywhere, and a cut signals the bank will keep conditions loose.
Risk assets re-rate up; the currency softens.
Why: Cheaper money flows toward higher-returning assets, and a lower local rate narrows the yield advantage of holding the currency, so it weakens.
The weaker currency lifts exporters, commodities, gold, and EM.
Why: Commodities priced in the easing currency rise in that currency; exporters gain competitiveness; and EM borrowers with dollar debt benefit as the dollar softens.

Helps
equities (broadly)goldEM assetslong-duration bondscommodities

Hurts
the easing currencycash/money-market real yield

Caveat: If the cut is an emergency response to a fast-deteriorating outlook ('cutting into a recession'), equities can fall even as bonds rally — the growth signal outweighs the liquidity boost.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 50 → 35.7 (-14.3)

Manufacturing PMI is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensives and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicals, small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M11China credit impulse (easing proxy)

Trigger: policy_rate: 4.15 → 4.05 (-0.1)

China cuts its benchmark lending rate (LPR).
Why: A lower LPR reduces borrowing costs and is the most visible signal that policymakers want credit to flow — a proxy for a turn-up in the credit impulsecredit impulse — The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag..
The flow of new credit into the economy turns up.
Why: Cheaper credit pulls forward borrowing by firms and local governments, raising the change in outstanding credit — the impulse — which leads activity by one to three quarters.
Industrial commodities, China/HK cyclicals, and the EM/commodity-exporter complex benefit.
Why: China is the marginal buyer of many industrial commodities, so a credit-driven activity pickup lifts their prices and the equities and exporter currencies geared to that demand.

Helps
industrial commoditiesChina/HK cyclicalsEM equitycommodity exporters (AUD, BRL)

Hurts
CNY (on the rate cut)China government bond yields (fall)

Caveat: LPR is only a proxy; the true impulse needs total-social-financing / new-loan data (a Rung-2 addition). A cut without a pickup in actual credit demand ('pushing on a string') doesn't deliver the transmission.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

Euro area

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 47.9 → 49.1 (+1.2)

Manufacturing PMI is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicals and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensives' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

Caveat: A one-month uptick that doesn't persist is a head-fake; the turn needs follow-through, and a sub-50 level still means activity is contracting in absolute terms — this is an inflection signal, not an all-clear.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.50	2.34	+0.16 ▲	2020-02-13
Core CPI	0.20	0.25	-0.05 ▬	2020-02-13
Core PCE	1.70	1.60	+0.10 ▬	2020-02-01
Policy rate	1.75	1.75	+0.00 ▬	2020-02-23
GDP	2.10	-5.20	+7.30 ▲	2020-01-30
PMI (mfg)	50.90	47.20	+3.70 ▲	2020-02-03
PMI (svc)	55.50	55.00	+0.50 ▲	2020-02-05
Unemployment	3.60	3.50	+0.10 ▲	2020-02-07
10Y yield	1.46	1.52	-0.06 ▼	2020-02-21
2Y yield	1.34	1.39	-0.05 ▬	2020-02-21
2s10s slope	0.12	0.13	-0.01 ▬	2020-02-21
FX vs USD	99.26	99.87	-0.61 ▼	2020-02-21

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	5.40	4.50	+0.90 ▲	2020-02-10
Policy rate	4.05	4.15	-0.10 ▼	2020-02-20
GDP	6.00	6.00	+0.00 ▬	2020-01-17
PMI (mfg)	35.70	50.00	-14.30 ▼	2020-02-01
PMI (svc)	54.10	53.50	+0.60 ▲	2020-01-31
Unemployment	6.20	5.30	+0.90 ▲	2020-02-01
10Y yield	2.85	2.89	-0.04 ▬	2020-02-21
2Y yield	2.31	2.35	-0.05 ▬	2020-02-21
2s10s slope	0.54	0.53	+0.01 ▬	2020-02-21
FX vs USD	7.02	7.00	+0.03 ▬	2020-02-21

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.40	1.40	+0.00 ▬	2020-02-21
Policy rate	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2020-01-23
GDP	-1.00	0.30	-1.30 ▼	2020-02-21
PMI (mfg)	49.10	47.90	+1.20 ▲	2020-02-21
PMI (svc)	52.80	52.50	+0.30 ▬	2020-02-21
Unemployment	7.40	7.50	-0.10 ▬	2020-01-30
10Y yield	0.13	0.32	-0.18 ▼	2020-02-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	1.08	1.08	-0.00 ▬	2020-02-21

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.70	0.80	-0.10 ▼	2020-02-21
Core CPI	0.40	0.50	-0.10 ▬	2020-02-21
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2020-01-21
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.20	2.20	+0.00 ▬	2020-01-31
10Y yield	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09 ▼	2020-02-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	111.95	111.21	+0.74 ▲	2020-02-21

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse ✓: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.