Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2020-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2020-07daily glanceweekly archive →2020-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2020-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W33: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
deflation watch · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×3 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.39 → 0.60 +0.21 (2020-08-01 → 2020-08-12)
  • core_pce: 1.39 → 1.30 -0.09 (2020-08-01 → 2020-08-28)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.28 → 1.00 -0.28 (2020-08-01 → 2020-08-12)
  • fx: 93.49 → 92.37 -1.12 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • gdp: -32.90 → -31.70 +1.20 (2020-07-30 → 2020-08-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.60 → 54.20 +1.60 (2020-07-01 → 2020-08-03)
  • pmi_svc: 57.10 → 58.10 +1.00 (2020-07-06 → 2020-08-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-08-02 → 2020-08-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.44 → 0.60 +0.16 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • unemployment: 8.40 → 10.20 +1.80 (2020-08-01 → 2020-08-07)
  • yield_10y: 0.55 → 0.74 +0.19 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.11 → 0.14 +0.03 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.70 +0.20 (2020-07-09 → 2020-08-10)
  • fx: 7.01 → 6.89 -0.12 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-07-20 → 2020-08-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.50 → 0.28 -0.22 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • yield_10y: 2.97 → 3.07 +0.10 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.47 → 2.79 +0.32 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-19)
  • fx: 1.19 → 1.18 -0.01 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)
  • gdp: 0.30 → -0.40 -0.70 (2020-07-17 → 2020-08-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 51.70 +0.60 (2020-07-24 → 2020-08-21)
  • pmi_svc: 55.10 → 50.10 -5.00 (2020-07-24 → 2020-08-21)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.30 +0.10 (2020-07-21 → 2020-08-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.30 +0.20 (2020-07-21 → 2020-08-21)
  • fx: 104.68 → 106.64 +1.95 (2020-07-31 → 2020-08-28)

Busiest week: 2020-W33 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W31 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-08 vs 2020-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W32

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W33

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W34

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W35

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change