Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2017-10

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2017-09daily glanceweekly archive →2017-11 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2017-10 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.28 → 0.10 -0.18 (2017-10-01 → 2017-10-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.02 → 2.20 +0.18 (2017-10-01 → 2017-10-13)
  • gdp: 4.60 → 3.00 -1.60 (2017-10-01 → 2017-10-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.80 → 60.80 +2.00 (2017-09-01 → 2017-10-02)
  • pmi_svc: 55.30 → 59.80 +4.50 (2017-09-06 → 2017-10-04)
  • policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.25 0.00 (2017-10-01 → 2017-10-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.86 → 0.83 -0.03 (2017-09-29 → 2017-10-27)
  • unemployment: 4.20 → 4.20 0.00 (2017-10-01 → 2017-10-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.33 → 2.42 +0.09 (2017-09-29 → 2017-10-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.47 → 1.59 +0.12 (2017-09-29 → 2017-10-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 1.60 -0.20 (2017-09-09 → 2017-10-16)
  • gdp: 6.90 → 6.80 -0.10 (2017-07-17 → 2017-10-19)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-09-30 → 2017-10-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.08 → 0.25 +0.18 (2017-09-30 → 2017-10-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.61 → 3.83 +0.21 (2017-09-30 → 2017-10-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.54 → 3.58 +0.04 (2017-09-30 → 2017-10-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2017-09-29 → 2017-10-17)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2017-09-18 → 2017-10-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.20 → 58.60 +0.40 (2017-09-22 → 2017-10-24)
  • pmi_svc: 55.60 → 54.90 -0.70 (2017-09-22 → 2017-10-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-09-07 → 2017-10-26)
  • unemployment: 9.10 → 9.10 0.00 (2017-08-31 → 2017-10-02)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-09-29 → 2017-10-27)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.70 0.00 (2017-09-29 → 2017-10-27)

Busiest week: 2017-W39 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W40 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-10 vs 2017-09, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-10).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2017-W39

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W40

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W41

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W42

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change

2017-W43

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
unknown · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change