Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2016-H2

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2016-H2 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-H2 vs 2016-H1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-H2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

W35: goldilocks / reflation → stall-speed, at target · W37: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W39: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W48: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×17 growth_acceleration
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown

China

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×8 yield_spike
M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

Japan

M2 ×9 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.20 +0.08 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-15)
core_pce: 1.60 → 1.60 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-22)
cpi_yoy: 0.87 → 1.70 +0.83 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-15)
gdp: 2.90 → 3.50 +0.60 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 53.20 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-01)
pmi_svc: 52.90 → 57.20 +4.30 (2016-06-03 → 2016-12-05)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.75 +0.25 (2016-07-03 → 2016-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 0.87 → 1.33 +0.46 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)
unemployment: 4.80 → 4.60 -0.20 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-02)
yield_10y: 1.46 → 2.55 +1.09 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)
yield_2y: 0.59 → 1.22 +0.63 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.30 +0.30 (2016-06-09 → 2016-12-09)
gdp: 6.70 → 6.70 0.00 (2016-04-15 → 2016-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 49.90 → 51.40 +1.50 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 54.70 +1.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-01)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)
slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.27 -0.09 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)
yield_10y: 2.80 → 3.18 +0.37 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)
yield_2y: 2.45 → 2.91 +0.46 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.60 +0.50 (2016-06-30 → 2016-12-16)
gdp: 0.40 → -0.10 -0.50 (2016-06-16 → 2016-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.80 → 54.90 +2.10 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-15)
pmi_svc: 52.40 → 53.10 +0.70 (2016-06-23 → 2016-12-15)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-06-02 → 2016-12-08)
unemployment: 10.10 → 9.80 -0.30 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-01)
yield_10y: 0.62 → 1.28 +0.66 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.20 -0.30 (2016-07-01 → 2016-11-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.10 +0.60 (2016-07-01 → 2016-11-25)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-06-16 → 2016-12-20)
unemployment: 3.20 → 3.00 -0.20 (2016-07-01 → 2016-11-29)
yield_10y: -0.20 → 0.04 +0.23 (2016-07-01 → 2016-12-01)

Busiest week: 2016-W38 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W26 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose