Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2016-H1

Half-year aggregate · 26 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2016-H1 — 26 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-H1 vs 2015-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 26 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

disinflationary stall · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×2 growth_acceleration

Japan

M3 ×7 policy_easing
M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.20 +0.03 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-16)
core_pce: 1.41 → 1.55 +0.14 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.24 → 1.00 -0.24 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-16)
gdp: 2.30 → 0.80 -1.50 (2016-01-01 → 2016-05-27)
pmi_mfg: 48.60 → 51.30 +2.70 (2015-12-01 → 2016-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.90 → 52.90 -3.00 (2015-12-03 → 2016-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-01-03 → 2016-06-26)
slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 0.93 -0.28 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)
unemployment: 4.80 → 4.70 -0.10 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-03)
yield_10y: 2.27 → 1.57 -0.70 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)
yield_2y: 1.06 → 0.64 -0.42 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 2.00 +0.50 (2015-12-09 → 2016-06-09)
gdp: 6.90 → 6.70 -0.20 (2015-10-19 → 2016-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 49.40 → 50.00 +0.60 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.40 → 53.10 -1.30 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-01)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)
slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.37 -0.03 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)
yield_10y: 2.82 → 2.88 +0.06 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)
yield_2y: 2.42 → 2.51 +0.09 (2015-12-31 → 2016-06-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.10 -0.30 (2015-12-16 → 2016-06-16)
gdp: -0.10 → 0.40 +0.50 (2015-12-16 → 2016-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 53.10 → 52.60 -0.50 (2015-12-16 → 2016-06-23)
pmi_svc: 53.90 → 52.40 -1.50 (2015-12-16 → 2016-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.00 -0.05 (2015-12-03 → 2016-06-02)
unemployment: 10.70 → 10.20 -0.50 (2015-12-01 → 2016-05-31)
yield_10y: 1.11 → 0.88 -0.23 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.90 → 0.50 -0.40 (2015-12-25 → 2016-05-27)
cpi_yoy: 0.30 → -0.30 -0.60 (2015-12-25 → 2016-05-27)
policy_rate: 0.10 → -0.10 -0.20 (2015-12-18 → 2016-06-16)
unemployment: 3.30 → 3.20 -0.10 (2015-12-25 → 2016-05-31)
yield_10y: 0.10 → -0.23 -0.33 (2016-01-01 → 2016-06-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W53 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W18 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose