Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2016-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2016-07daily glanceweekly archive →2016-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2016-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
W34: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
no fires
Japan
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.24 → 0.10 -0.14 (2016-08-01 → 2016-08-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.06 → 0.80 -0.26 (2016-08-01 → 2016-08-16)
  • gdp: 1.20 → 1.10 -0.10 (2016-07-29 → 2016-08-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-08-07 → 2016-08-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.87 → 0.78 -0.09 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
  • yield_10y: 1.59 → 1.62 +0.03 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.72 → 0.84 +0.12 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 1.80 -0.10 (2016-07-10 → 2016-08-09)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.46 → 0.43 -0.04 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.75 → 2.69 -0.06 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.29 → 2.27 -0.02 (2016-08-05 → 2016-08-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.20 0.00 (2016-07-29 → 2016-08-18)
  • gdp: 0.20 → -0.60 -0.80 (2016-07-15 → 2016-08-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.00 → 51.80 -0.20 (2016-08-01 → 2016-08-23)
  • pmi_svc: 52.90 → 53.10 +0.20 (2016-08-03 → 2016-08-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.30 -0.20 (2016-07-29 → 2016-08-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.40 → -0.40 0.00 (2016-07-29 → 2016-08-26)

Busiest week: 2016-W34 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2016-W31 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-08 vs 2016-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2016-W31

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W32

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W33

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2016-W34

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M2_inflation_surprise_down, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 2 active