Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2016-07

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2016-06daily glanceweekly archive →2016-08 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2016-07 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
W29: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.20 +0.08 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-15)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.87 → 1.00 +0.13 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-15)
  • gdp: 2.90 → 1.20 -1.70 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • pmi_svc: 52.90 → 56.50 +3.60 (2016-06-03 → 2016-07-06)
  • policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-07-03 → 2016-07-31)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.87 → 0.79 -0.08 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • unemployment: 4.80 → 4.90 +0.10 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-08)
  • yield_10y: 1.46 → 1.46 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • yield_2y: 0.59 → 0.67 +0.08 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2016-06-09 → 2016-07-10)
  • gdp: 6.70 → 6.70 0.00 (2016-04-15 → 2016-07-15)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.41 +0.06 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • yield_10y: 2.80 → 2.78 -0.03 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • yield_2y: 2.45 → 2.36 -0.09 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2016-06-30 → 2016-07-29)
  • gdp: 0.40 → 0.20 -0.20 (2016-06-16 → 2016-07-15)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.80 → 51.90 -0.90 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-22)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 52.70 +0.30 (2016-06-23 → 2016-07-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-06-02 → 2016-07-21)
  • unemployment: 10.10 → 10.10 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.40 +0.10 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-06-16 → 2016-07-29)
  • unemployment: 3.20 → 3.10 -0.10 (2016-07-01 → 2016-07-29)

Busiest week: 2016-W26 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2016-W26 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2016-07 vs 2016-06, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2016-07).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2016-W26

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W27

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W28

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W29

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2016-W30

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change