Macro Intelligence · Weekly · deep read

Macro Regime — 2015-W04

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2015-01 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2015-01); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: goldilocks / reflation
China: stall-speed, at target
Euro area: deflation watch
Japan: stall-speed, at target

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2015-01	2014-12	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.09 2015-01-01	0.05 2014-12-01	→ 0.04
Core PCE	% YoY	1.21 2015-01-01	1.36 2014-12-01	▼ -0.15
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.23 2015-01-01	0.65 2014-12-01	▼ -0.88
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	3.6 2015-01-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	55.5 2015-01-02	58.7 2014-12-01	▼ -3.2
PMI (svc)	index	56.2 2015-01-06	59.3 2014-12-03	▼ -3.1
Policy rate	%	0.25 2015-01-31	0.25 2014-12-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	1.21 2015-01-30	1.5 2014-12-31	▼ -0.29
Unemployment	%	5.7 2015-01-01	5.6 2014-12-01	→ 0.1
10Y yield	%	1.68 2015-01-30	2.17 2014-12-31	▼ -0.49
2Y yield	%	0.47 2015-01-30	0.67 2014-12-31	▼ -0.2

China

Indicator	Basis	2015-01	2014-12	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.5 2015-01-09	1.4 2014-12-10	→ 0.1
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	7.3 2015-01-20	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	49.8 2015-01-01	50.1 2014-12-01	→ -0.3
PMI (svc)	index	54.1 2015-01-01	53.9 2014-12-03	→ 0.2
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	5.51 2015-01-30	5.51 2014-12-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.35 2015-01-30	0.31 2014-12-31	→ 0.03
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.5 2015-01-30	3.62 2014-12-31	▼ -0.12
2Y yield	%	3.16 2015-01-30	3.31 2014-12-31	▼ -0.15

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2015-01	2014-12	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.6 2015-01-30	0.3 2014-12-17	▼ -0.9
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	-0.1 2015-01-16	-0.2 2014-12-17	→ 0.1
PMI (mfg)	index	51 2015-01-23	50.8 2014-12-16	→ 0.2
PMI (svc)	index	52.3 2015-01-23	51.9 2014-12-16	▲ 0.4
Policy rate	%	0.05 2015-01-22	0.05 2014-12-04	→ 0
Unemployment	%	11.4 2015-01-30	—	—
10Y yield	%	1.27 2015-01-01	1.45 2014-12-01	▼ -0.18

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2015-01	2014-12	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	2.1 2015-01-25	2.1 2014-12-26	→ 0
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.4 2015-01-25	2.4 2014-12-26	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	3.74 2015-01-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2015-01-21	0.1 2014-12-19	→ 0
Unemployment	%	3.4 2015-01-29	3.5 2014-12-30	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	0.28 2015-01-01	0.33 2014-12-01	▼ -0.06

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

goldilocks / reflation

expansion · below target · on hold

Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.

○ no change

China

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

deflation watch

stall · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

stall-speed, at target

unknown · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 50.1 → 49.8 (-0.3)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 50.6 → 51 (+0.4)

Manufacturing PMI is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicals, small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensives lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.80	-0.23	+1.03 ▲	2015-01-14
Core CPI	0.00	0.09	-0.09 ▬	2015-01-16
Core PCE	1.21	1.40	-0.19 ▼	2015-01-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-25
GDP	3.60	5.00	-1.40 ▼	2015-01-01
PMI (mfg)	55.50	58.70	-3.20 ▼	2015-01-02
PMI (svc)	56.20	59.30	-3.10 ▼	2015-01-06
Unemployment	5.60	5.70	-0.10 ▼	2015-01-09
10Y yield	1.81	1.90	-0.09 ▼	2015-01-23
2Y yield	0.52	0.53	-0.01 ▬	2015-01-23
2s10s slope	1.29	1.37	-0.08 ▼	2015-01-23
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.50	1.40	+0.10 ▲	2015-01-09
Policy rate	5.51	5.51	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-23
GDP	7.30	7.30	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-20
PMI (mfg)	49.80	50.10	-0.30 ▼	2015-01-01
PMI (svc)	54.10	53.90	+0.20 ▬	2015-01-01
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.45	3.45	-0.00 ▬	2015-01-23
2Y yield	3.17	3.18	-0.01 ▬	2015-01-23
2s10s slope	0.28	0.27	+0.01 ▬	2015-01-23
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.20	-0.20	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-16
Policy rate	0.05	0.05	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-22
GDP	-0.10	-0.20	+0.10 ▬	2015-01-16
PMI (mfg)	51.00	50.60	+0.40 ▲	2015-01-23
PMI (svc)	52.30	51.60	+0.70 ▲	2015-01-23
Unemployment	11.50	11.50	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-07
10Y yield	1.27	1.45	-0.18 ▼	2015-01-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.40	2.40	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-25
Core CPI	2.10	2.10	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-25
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2015-01-21
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	3.50	3.50	+0.00 ▬	2014-12-30
10Y yield	0.28	0.33	-0.06 ▼	2015-01-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.